base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Base 8 +2 GEX bearish, +.5 near MP, +.5 VIX 19
Term structure: 1DTE put IV 111%, steep backwardation; long-dated ~52%
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Trending ($-9.5M)
Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,825 (19.5% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain $442 (6/26); put wall $350-400, call wall $480-560
#1Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $470.00/$500.00 call spread
Sell $470/$500 call spread; defined risk, bearish bias.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or near $442 invalidation. No adjustment needed.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $400.00/$380.00 put wing and $480.00/$500.00 call wing
Sell $400/$380 put wing and $480/$500 call wing; neutral outlook.
Mgmt: Monitor for breakout; close wing if tested. Roll if needed at 21 DTE.
#3Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $480.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $470.00 call
Sell short-term call, buy long-term call; benefits from IV flattening.
Mgmt: Adjust if spot drops below 420; roll short call if tested.
!Pin risk at $442 tomorrow; avoid naked options
!Front-end put IV extreme, avoid short puts near expiry
!Gamma flip ~$350; hedge with put spreads