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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $423.93EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$19.50
4.6% from close
Price Gap
-43.93
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
62
High premium
P/C OI
1.45
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
TSM Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Short Puts
Invalidation: Break below gamma flip at $400 or VIX spike above 20
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV (55.6%) is significantly above VIX (17.7), indicating elevated implied volatility relative to realized.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-month (0 DTE) shows extreme put skew (put IV 104% vs call 59%), typical of event risk. Term structure is upward sloping from 6 DTE onward, contango.

📈IV premium over VIX favorable for sellers
⚠️Front-month put skew extreme; avoid naked puts

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+12.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,643 (5.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated 5.6% below spot at $400 (23,643 contracts); call OI wall at $480-$560. Max Pain at $425 for 2026-06-12.

Verdict: Moderate pin risk; spot near $425 max pain, but gamma flip at $400 provides support. OI suggests pinning possible.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $400.00/$397.50 put spread
Sells put spread to capture premium with defined risk.
Credit: $0.21-$0.26
Max loss: $2.24
BE: $399.74
Mgmt: Exit if TSM breaks below 400.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $400.00/$397.50 put wing and $425.00/$427.50 call wing
Collects premium on both sides expecting range-bound movement.
Credit: $1.25-$1.52
Max loss: $0.98
BE: 398.48 / 426.52
Mgmt: Adjust or close on IV expansion.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at $400; break below could accelerate selling
!Front-month put skew extreme; watch for volatility events
!VIX at 17.68; monitor for spikes
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.