thetaOwl

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $434.16EOD only
Max Pain
$450.00
Next expiry Jul 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$27.40
6.3% from close
Price Gap
+15.84
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.39
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 2, 2026 close
Consensus-ledJuly 2, 2026 close5.0/10 conviction

AI Consensus

Bias
Bearish
Neutral to slightly bullish
Best Fit
Defined risk

Sell 2026-07-31 $440/$445 call spread for ~$1

Key Levels
450 / 434 / 462
Magnet / spot / breakout
Main Risk
Event sensitivity

Break above $440 flips GEX positive and invalidates bearish thesis, triggering stop-losses that accelerate upsi…

One-line synthesis

Bearish tilt

Highest-conviction setup

Sell 2026-07-31 $440/$445 call spread for ~$1

Main disagreement

Theta's put credit spread (bullish) contradicts directional and flow bearish verdict

Persona support grid

Earnings

Event premium and IV crush

8.0/10
Contribution

Heavy put accumulation, especially deep OTM, signals downside hedging or bearish bets despite perfect history

Full Report

Event pathing and volatility setup

Open report

Top setup: Range-Bound IV Crush: Sell 2026-07-10 $420.00/$410.00 put wing and $440.00/$450.00 call wing

How to Use These Reports
This hub collects the active report lenses so you can compare how each persona reads the same market-close snapshot.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.