thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTSMReports

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $434.99EOD only
Max Pain
$442.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.62
2.2% from close
Price Gap
+7.51
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
17
Low premium
P/C OI
1.37
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
TSM Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-bearish bias. Spot below $440 max pain, negative GEX amplifies moves. Supports $420, $400. Drift lower expected.

Confidence:
5 / 10
Base 5; -1 GEX/flow; +0.5 spot near MP; +0.5 VIX 18.
Supports: Spot near MP, VIX 18, support $400.
Conflicts: Positive DEX +47.7M suggests underlying buying.
🔻Below $440 MP, resistance holds
⚡Short gamma amplifies risk
🟡Gamma flip near $350 key downside trigger

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated (VIX 18.4), high vol regime.
Gamma Regime
Trending
-$26.1M GEX, trending gamma accelerates moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium, puts/calls balanced.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below $440 MP, bias lower.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Ranges extend two weeks, structural support/resistance.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$411.45$453.25
Resistance $440, support $411.45, below MP
Next 2 weeks
$400.78$463.93
Range $400.78-$463.93, gamma flip risk below $400

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $440 (2026-06-26); $440 (2026-07-02); $450 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 1w $411.45/$453.25
Support: $420.00 · $400.78 · $400.00
Resistance: $440.00 · $463.93
Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,779 (19.0% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $440; support $420, $411.45, $400.78, $400; resistance $440, $463.93; gamma flip ~$350.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-26.1M

DEX: +47.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$350 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,779 (19.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: -$26.1M GEX (short gamma) amplifies moves; +47.7M DEX long delta bias but gamma negative dominates.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: VIX 18.4, ticker IV elevated in high vol regime.

Term structure: Near-term contango typical, event risk unspecified.

Skew: No skew data; bearish put spreads suggested.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$103M, but put/call vol ratio 1.96 shows bearish flow dominance.

Directional prints: 105.7 put 382.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 14.7, deep OTM put at 105.7% IV; likely bearish hedge or downside speculation. 114.6 put 295 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 6.8, very deep OTM put with 114.6% IV; aggressive bearish positioning. 15.4 call 435 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 5.1, OTM call near expiry; low IV suggests short-term bullish speculation.

Unusual: 105.7 put 382.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Highest vol/OI 14.7; deep OTM put, massive relative volume, extreme IV. 55.6 call 660 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 10.8; far OTM leap call, high vol relative to OI, long-dated bullish bet. 114.6 put 295 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 6.8; very deep OTM put, high IV, bearish tail risk.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside breakout above $440 via positive DEX
!Gamma squeeze near $350 flip
!Macro tech selloff

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $420.00/$390.00 put spread
Why now: Neg GEX, bearish flow, max pain below spot.
Breakout >$440 from positive DEX.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-17 $410.00 put
Why now: Elevated put vol, bearish flow.
Theta decay if spot stays >$440.
Put diagonalConditional
Sell 2026-07-10 $410.00 put / buy 2026-07-31 $405.00 put
Why now: IV term structure + theta decay.
Rally post-earnings.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $420.00/$390.00 put spread
Defined-risk bearish spread targeting $390.
Why this play: Best risk/reward for bearish view with max pain bias.
Debit: $8.03-$9.82
Max loss: $9.82
BE: $410.18
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if stock breaks above $440.
Conservative bearish plays
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-17 $410.00 put
Uncapped bearish profit but expensive.
Why this play: Direct bearish bet with high upside.
Debit: $9.83-$12.02
Max loss: $12.02
BE: $397.98
Mgmt: Close if stock reclaims $440.
Aggressive bearish plays
#3
Put Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $410.00 put / buy 2026-07-31 $405.00 put
Neutral-to-bearish put diagonal for time decay.
Why this play: Theta decay play with IV term structure.
Debit: $6.37-$7.78
Max loss: $7.78
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Manage short leg at expiration.
Advanced traders seeking theta management

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFTSM breaks below $420 support → Enter Bear Put Spread: buy 2026-07-17 $420/$390 put spread
Exit Triggers
EXITTSM closes above $440 invalidation level → Exit Bear Put Spread and Long Put positions
EXITTSM reaches $400 or 50% profit on spread → Take profit on Bear Put Spread per management plan

Tactical Summary

TSM bearish bias: spot below $440 max pain, negative GEX, supports at $420, $400. Best play: Bear Put Spread ($420/$390) targeting $390. Risk if reclaims $440. Alternative: Long Put for aggressive. Manage at 50% profit or invalidation.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.