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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $392.61EOD only

Max Pain

$400.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.53

4.0% from close

Price Gap

+7.39

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.41

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

TSM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Bullish with pinning support near $340-$350. Confidence: 7.5/10. Strong GEX +$15.1M and net premium +$35.2M support upside; spot 3.6% above max pain adds gravity.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive; -0.5 spot above MP

Supports: GEX +$15.1M (pinning), net premium +$35.2M, P/C vol 0.76
Conflicts: Spot above MP, IV 49.4% elevated

📊GEX pinning near $350

💰Net premium +$35.2M bullish

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 49.4% elevated vs no VIX given — rich but earnings 4/16 priced

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$15.1M concentrated near spot — pinning regime

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net prem +$35.2M with P/C vol 0.76 — bullish flow

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $341.76 above MP $330-$340 — gravity downward

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder rises $330→$340 across expirations; GEX sign stable positive; flow regime consistent

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$312.71$370.81

GEX pinning dominates; <$330 invalidates

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $330 (2026-04-10); $340 (2026-04-17); $335 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails:

Support: $340.00 · $335.00 · $330.00

Resistance: $350.00 · $355.00 · $370.00

Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,023 (3.4% below spot)

Structural: Call OI $370-$500 caps upside; put floor $175-$250 distant

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+15.1M

DEX: +44.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$330 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,023 (3.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive GEX at $350/$355; gamma flip ~$330 — below that accelerates selling

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 49.4% elevated — earnings priced

Term structure: Humped — 4/17 51.1% > 4/24 49.2% — earnings kink

Skew: 4/17 vs 4/24 ~2 vol-pt differential

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$35.2M bullish; P/C vol 0.76

Directional prints: call 340 ITM 2026-04-24 — Vol 7,630 vs OI 571 (13.4x) — likely bought calls call 375 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 2,240 vs OI 904 (2.5x) — speculative upside

Unusual: 164.8 put 220 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 478 vs OI 205 (2.3x) — tail hedge

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings 4/16 vol crush post-event

!Gamma flip ~$330 breaks pin

!IV 49.4% rich — selling premium edge

!Spot above MP adds downward gravity

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at $341.76	Earnings volatility
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — bullish flow/GEX	Pinning upward
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Sell $350 call 4/17	Upside cap at resistance
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $340/$335 put spread 4/17	Break below $330
Long calls	Moderate	Buy $350 call 4/24	IV crush post-earnings
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Weak	Avoid — bullish regime	Pinning upward
Iron condor	Moderate	$330/$325P x $370/$375C 4/24	Earnings break range
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/17 51.1% IV, buy 4/24 49.2% IV — regular calendar	Theta decay mismatch
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $300 call 2027-03-19, sell $350 call 4/17	Capital intensive

Top Plays

Put Spread

Sell $340/$335 put spread 4/17

Defined-risk premium below support with pinning edge

Credit: $1.50-$2.00

Max loss: $3.50

BE: $338.50

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit; stop if spot <$330

Bullish traders wanting income below $340

Covered Call

Sell $350 call 4/17

Income at resistance with shares; aligns with pinning

Credit: $8.20-$8.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Roll up if spot >$355; close pre-earnings

Shareholders wanting yield

Regular Calendar

Sell $350 call 4/17, buy $350 call 4/24

Sell 51.1% IV, buy 49.2% IV — +1.9pt edge; earnings vol differential

Debit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: $2.50

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close post-earnings vol crush; stop if IV flattens

Vol traders exploiting term structure

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot tags $350, holds 1 hour → Sell $350/$355 call spread 4/17

IFIV >55% pre-earnings → Sell $340 straddle 4/17

Exit Triggers

EXITPost-earnings IV <40% → Exit all short vol positions

EXITSpot >$370 → Take profit on long calls

Tactical Summary

Bullish pinning toward $350 with earnings 4/16 volatility. Invalidation: <$330. Regime favors selling premium below support and covered calls. Top plays: put spread for defined risk, covered call for shareholders, calendar for vol edge.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.