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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $392.61EOD only

Max Pain

$400.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.53

4.0% from close

Price Gap

+7.39

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.41

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

TSM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a pinning magnet to $338-$340. Confidence: 8/10. Spot is now at max pain, GEX remains positive, and net premium is slightly bullish. The regime is stable, but mixed flow and high IV introduce noise.

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX/flow weakly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP. No override — mechanical score captures the stable, pinned state.

Supports: GEX +$5.9M (pinning), spot at MP ($339.04 vs $338), net premium +$821K (bullish bias).
Conflicts: Mixed flow (P/C vol 1.59 bearish, P/C OI 1.27), elevated IV (48.6%) adds premium-selling edge but also tail risk.

📌Spot pinned at max pain — gravity neutralized.

⚖️Flow mixed: bullish net premium vs bearish P/C ratios.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 48.6% is elevated — selling premium has edge, but not extreme.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$5.9M concentrated near spot — strong pinning pressure persists.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium +$821K bullish, but P/C ratios (vol 1.59, OI 1.27) show put-heavy positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at MP — immediate gravitational pull is neutral; pin holds but lacks directional drift.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pins at $330-$340 persist across the next 5 expirations, GEX positive is stable, and the pinning regime has held for a week. This supports a 2-4 week range-bound thesis.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$323.19$354.89

Pinning dominates; break below $323 (EM low) or above $355 (EM high) needed for trend.

Next 2 weeks

$312.97$365.12

Flow bias and max pain cluster support a grind higher; $330 gamma flip is key support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $338 (2026-03-27); $330 (2026-04-02); $330 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $323.19/$354.89

Support: $330.00 · $175.00 · $330.00

Resistance: $370.00 · $400.00 · $500.00

Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,431

Structural: Massive call OI wall $370-$500 caps major rallies; deep put floor $175-$300 is a distant structural support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+5.9M

DEX: +44.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$330 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,431)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$330. Dealers are long gamma here, hedging to suppress volatility. A move below $330 accelerates selling; a move above $340 reduces pinning pressure.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 48.6% is elevated — selling premium has edge in a pinning regime.

Term structure: Humped — 4/17 IV 48.7% > 4/10 IV 40.9%, pricing in 4/16 earnings. Steep drop to ~45% by May.

Skew: ~7.8 vol-point differential between 4/17 (48.7%) and 6/18 (45.4%) — supports selling near-term, buying longer-dated vol (reverse calendar).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$821K bullish; P/C vol 1.59 (put dominance), P/C OI 1.27 (put-heavy).

Directional prints: $280P 10/16 vol 10,020 vs OI 966 (10.4x) at 46.1% IV — large, fresh OI, likely bought puts for long-dated hedge or sold for premium; selling is more consistent with elevated IV and pinning. $335C 4/24 vol 1,142 vs OI 392 (2.9x) at 48.3% IV — near-term call buying targeting just below spot; could be bought for upside or sold against a position.

Unusual: $120P 5/15 vol 873 at 146.1% IV — extreme tail-risk hedging or very expensive premium selling; likely a low-probability lottery ticket.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $330 — a close below breaks the pin and could accelerate selling.

!Earnings on 4/16 creates a binary vol crush event for April options.

!Mixed flow signals (bearish P/C ratios vs bullish net premium) indicate underlying positioning conflict.

!Elevated IV (48.6%) increases tail risk for short premium strategies if pin breaks.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Entry on dip to $330 (gamma flip), target $340-$350.	Time to pin resolution; break below $330.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid; opposes GEX, max pain, and net premium bias.	Squeeze to $340-$350.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	If long, sell $340C 4/17 for ~$5.00 credit (at max pain, high IV).	Upside capped at key resistance; earnings vol crush.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $330/$325 put spread 4/17 for credit (~$1.50). Strike at gamma flip and EM low.	Break below $322.5 (nearest valid strike to 1w EM low).
Long calls	Moderate	Buy $340C 4/17, sell $350C 4/17 for debit call spread (~$3.00). Targets max pain grind.	Time decay in elevated IV; pin holds range.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	Avoid; regime opposes.	Costly fade of pin and flow.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell $330/$325P x $350/$355C 4/17. Wings at 1w EM bounds (using $322.5/$355).	Earnings vol crush after 4/17 expiry is a non-issue for this expiration.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $340C 4/17 (IV 48.7%), buy $340C 6/18 (IV 45.4%) for a credit reverse calendar. Bet on IV crush post-earnings.	Spot runs past $340 before earnings.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $300C Jan 2027 (~$45), sell $340C 4/17 against it for ~$5.00. Finance long-dated bullish view with near-term IV.	Short call tested if pin runs quickly to $340.

Top Plays

Iron Condor (Pinning Range)

Sell $330/$325P x $350/$355C 4/17

Capitalizes on positive GEX pinning and elevated IV by selling strangles at the 1-week expected move bounds ($322.5/$355). High probability of spot staying within the range through expiry, with defined risk.

Credit: $1.20-$1.60

Max loss: $3.80

BE: P: 328.80, C: 351.20

Mgmt: Close at 60-80% max profit. Adjust if spot breaches $330 or $350.

Premium sellers comfortable with a neutral, range-bound view.

Put Spread (Gamma Flip Support)

Sell $330/$325 put spread 4/17

Benefits from pinning regime and support at the gamma flip ($330). Defined-risk premium collection with high IV edge. Better than naked put due to reduced risk if pin breaks.

Credit: $1.40-$1.80

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $328.60

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit. Exit on close below $330.

Defined-risk premium collectors with a neutral-to-bullish bias.

Reverse Calendar Spread (Vol Crush)

Sell $340C 4/17 / Buy $340C 6/18

Exploits the ~3.3 vol-point differential between earnings-inflated April IV and lower June IV. The 60+ DTE long leg provides time for the IV convergence thesis to play out post-earnings, improving risk/reward versus a weekly play that would miss the catalyst. Earns a credit for betting on stability.

Credit: $4.00-$5.00

Max loss: Unlimited (managed by long call)

BE: Complex; optimal if spot near $340 at 4/17 expiry with IV drop.

Mgmt: Close for profit if IV differential halves. Roll short leg if spot approaches $340 too quickly.

Vol traders with a neutral-to-bullish view, looking to harvest rich near-term IV.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $330 (gamma flip) and holds for 30 min → Enter $330/$325 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $337.50 (just below MP) and stalls → Sell $350/$355 call spread 4/17 for a credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $330 (gamma flip) → Exit all bullish and short put positions.

EXITSpot closes above $355 (1w EM high) → Take profits on iron condors and call spreads.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A range-bound pin between $330-$355, gravitating around $338-$340 max pain, supported by positive GEX. Invalidation is a close below the $330 gamma flip. The regime favors selling premium around the pin (iron condors, put spreads) and harvesting rich near-term IV (reverse calendars). Top plays: 1) Iron condor for high-probability premium collection, 2) Put spread for defined-risk support play, 3) Reverse calendar for vol traders with a 60+ DTE buffer.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.