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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $472.78EOD only
Max Pain
$447.50
Next expiry Oct 9, 2026
Expected Move
±$14.35
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-25.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
9
Low premium
P/C OI
1.12
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Oct 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 2, 2026 close
TSM Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness3 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Put Credit Spread
Invalidation: Spot holds above $440 or put IV declines.
Confidence:
3 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18; override: Bearish skew makes neutral premium selling risky; shift to bearish bias.

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 56.8% vs VIX 18.4%, elevated volatility relative to index.
Favorable?
No

Term structure: 0DTE put IV 132% vs call 77%; 1-4 week ATM IV 46-51%, then flat.

🔥0DTE put IV 132% extreme bearish skew.
⚠️Negative dealer GEX -$26M may amplify swings.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-26.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,779 (19.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $440; call wall $480-$560; put floor $350-$400; dealer short gamma.

Verdict: Spot near $440 with negative GEX; pin risk moderate but bearish skew suggests drift.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $420.00/$410.00 put spread
Sell 420/410 put spread to profit from time decay and downside drift.
Credit: $3.33-$4.07
Max loss: $5.93
BE: $415.93
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $420 or IV collapses.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $420.00/$410.00 put wing and $440.00/$450.00 call wing
Sell 420/410 put wing and 440/450 call wing for defined-risk theta collection.
Credit: $7.25-$8.86
Max loss: $1.14
BE: 411.14 / 448.86
Mgmt: Adjust or close if spot nears 420 or 440.
#3
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $440.00/$445.00 call spread
Sell 440/445 call spread against upside risk.
Credit: $1.78-$2.17
Max loss: $2.83
BE: $442.17
Mgmt: Monitor spot; close if above $440.

Risk Alerts

!High put IV skew indicates downside hedging.
!Negative gamma increases volatility risk.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.