TSM Theta Gang Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.6% from MP

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

IV 49.4% — no VIX provided for comparison

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Humped at 4/17 (51.1%), then declines to 44.6% by 5/22

💰IV ~49% offers rich premium for sellers

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above by 3.6% (spot $341.76 vs max pain $330)

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$15.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Below $330, dealers amplify moves

OI concentrations: Put wall $330 (17K OI), call wall $350 (10K OI)

Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX and OI clusters support pinning

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $330/$325 put spread 4/24 (18 DTE)

Pinning regime with max pain at $330; strong put OI support; below spot but above gamma flip

Credit: $1.70-$1.90

Max loss: $3.30

BE: $328.30

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit on close <$330

iron condor

Sell $330/$325P x $360/$365C 4/24 (18 DTE)

Wide range within expected move ($312.71-$370.81); positive GEX pinning; call OI wall at $360

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: 328.60/361.40

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; roll if either short strike tested

covered call

Sell $350 covered call 4/24 (18 DTE)

Spot below call OI wall at $350; GEX concentration +$3.5M at $350 acts as pin magnet; high IV boosts premium

Credit: $5.05-$5.35

Mgmt: Roll up/out if price approaches $350; close at 80% profit

cash-secured put

Sell $330 put 4/24 (18 DTE)

Max pain and largest put OI cluster at $330; positive GEX supports; credit >1% of strike

Credit: $2.61-$3.05

BE: $327.39

Mgmt: Roll down/out if price breaches $330; close at 70% profit

Risk Alerts

!Earnings on 2026-04-16 — close all positions before announcement

!Gamma flip at $330 — exit credit positions if spot closes below

!IV crush risk post-earnings — avoid selling premium after 4/16

!Unusual call activity at $340 (4/24) suggests institutional bullish bets

!Expected move ±$29.05 (8.5%) for 4/24 — size positions accordingly

Read the Theta Gang analysis for TSM for 2026-04-06. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.