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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $452.00EOD only
Max Pain
$427.50
Next expiry Sep 25, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.90
2.4% from close
Price Gap
-24.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
1.15
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 22, 2026 close
TSM Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 24, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Iron condors outside $400-$480
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $400 or above $480; VIX above 25
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV at 58% vs VIX 19%: elevated premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term skew extreme (2d put IV 106% vs call 61%); term structure flat to slightly contango.

📈IV 58% vs VIX 19% offers high premium, but near-term skew extreme.
🛡️GEX +$2M positive, dealer hedging supports pinning.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+2.0M)

Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,361 (20.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain: $442 (1d), $440 (1w,2w); Put OI concentration 21.3K at $350 (20.6% below spot). Call OI wall $480-$560.

Verdict: Moderate pin risk near $440; downside hedging at $350. Avoid short puts at these levels.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $430.00/$420.00 put wing and $450.00/$465.00 call wing
Sell 430/420 put and 450/465 call wings capturing time decay.
Credit: $9.13-$11.16
Max loss: $3.84
BE: 418.84 / 461.16
Mgmt: Monitor for break of 420/465; close at 50% max gain or 21 DTE.

Risk Alerts

!Extreme put skew in 2d expiry: put IV 106% vs call 61%
!Mixed flow may cause whipsaws
!High IV may compress if spot stabilizes
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.