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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $423.93EOD only

Max Pain

$380.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$19.50

4.6% from close

Price Gap

-43.93

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.45

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

TSM Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 16.2% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

IV 57% well above VIX 16.2

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Steep near-term skew; 3-day put IV 165%, indicating elevated demand

📈IV elevated vs VIX, premium selling attractive but high vol regime

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+32.3M)

Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,863 (9.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put wall $350-$400 (27.9K at $400); Call wall $480-$560; max pain $380/$422/$415

Verdict: Moderate pin risk; strong put floor and call wall, spot above gamma flip $400

Premium Opportunities

Iron condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$400.00 put wing and $480.00/$490.00 call wing

Sells premium on both sides using put and call credit spreads, maximizing credit while limiting loss.

Credit: $5.00-$6.11

Max loss: $3.89

BE: 403.89 / 486.11

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaches invalidation levels.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$400.00 put spread

Sells put spread to collect premium with defined risk, benefiting from high IV and support.

Credit: $2.54-$3.11

Max loss: $6.89

BE: $406.89

Mgmt: Exit if spot approaches invalidation level $406.35.

Call credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $480.00/$490.00 call spread

Sells call spread to collect premium, betting against break above resistance.

Credit: $2.45-$3.00

Max loss: $7.00

BE: $483.00

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot rises above $476.45.

Risk Alerts

!High vol regime increases gamma risk

!Near-term put skew extreme; avoid short puts into expirations

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.