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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $413.75EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Sep 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.35
2.5% from close
Price Gap
+1.25
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
1.26
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 15, 2026 close
TSM Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 17, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Put credit spreads
Invalidation: Spot closes below $400 (gamma flip) or above $448 (resistance).
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 13.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 59.45% vs VIX 18.44%, elevated.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep near-term put skew; IV decays to ~51% after 1 week.

📈High IV relative to VIX favors premium selling, but watch pinning.
⚠️Near-term put IV spiked (207%) indicating event risk.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+19.8M)

Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,194 (7.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins: $382, $425, $415. Put OI concentrated $350-$400; call wall $480-$560.

Verdict: Moderate pin risk near-term due to gamma pinning at $415-$425; major support at $400 flip.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$400.00 put spread
Sell put spread to capture premium ahead of earnings
Credit: $2.77-$3.38
Max loss: $6.62
BE: $406.62
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or before earnings
#2
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $450.00/$460.00 call spread
Sell call spread to profit from capped move
Credit: $3.06-$3.74
Max loss: $6.26
BE: $453.74
Mgmt: Watch for break above 448

Risk Alerts

!High near-term IV suggests event risk (earnings/dividend?).
!Dealer long gamma ($+19.8M) may amplify moves.
!Put/Call OI ratio 1.37 indicates put dominance.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.