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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $403.31EOD only

Max Pain

$400.00

Next expiry Jul 31, 2026

Expected Move

±$10.10

2.5% from close

Price Gap

-3.31

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.23

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jul 30, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jul 30, 2026 close

TSM Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 16, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.1% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 57.7% vs VIX 16.4, ~3.5x, high

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Near-term elevated with steep put skew; contango from 16d out

📊Put IV 173% at 2DTE signals extreme downside fear

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+6.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,509 (6.1% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI wall $350-$400; call OI wall $480-$560

Verdict: Pinning possible near $400 gamma flip; max pain pins $380, $425, $415

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$400.00 put spread

Sell $410/$400 put spread to collect premium from elevated IV and bearish skew.

Credit: $3.51-$4.29

Max loss: $5.71

BE: $405.71

Mgmt: Manage if spot approaches $400; take profit at 50% of max gain.

Risk Alerts

!Near-term put skew extreme; QQQ -1.9% adds downside risk

!Put/Call OI ratio 1.43 and volume 1.51 indicate bearish bias

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.