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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $418.01EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Sep 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.48
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-3.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
1.24
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 14, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 14, 2026 close
TSM Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 16, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell Put Spreads
Invalidation: Spot closes below $400 support
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.1% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 57.7% vs VIX 16.4, ~3.5x, high
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term elevated with steep put skew; contango from 16d out

📊Put IV 173% at 2DTE signals extreme downside fear

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+6.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,509 (6.1% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI wall $350-$400; call OI wall $480-$560

Verdict: Pinning possible near $400 gamma flip; max pain pins $380, $425, $415

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$400.00 put spread
Sell $410/$400 put spread to collect premium from elevated IV and bearish skew.
Credit: $3.51-$4.29
Max loss: $5.71
BE: $405.71
Mgmt: Manage if spot approaches $400; take profit at 50% of max gain.

Risk Alerts

!Near-term put skew extreme; QQQ -1.9% adds downside risk
!Put/Call OI ratio 1.43 and volume 1.51 indicate bearish bias
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.