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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $430.26EOD only
Max Pain
$420.00
Next expiry Sep 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.98
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-10.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
20
Low premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 17, 2026 close
TSM Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 18, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Selling put spreads
Invalidation: Close below $400 or VIX above 20
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 20.0% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 65% vs VIX 16.4, elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: 0 DTE skew (call 165%, put 315%) distorts avg; rest ~49-54%

📈GEX +$89M bullish; flow supports premium selling
⚠️Put IV 315% on 0 DTE signals tail risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+89.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 26,643 (13.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call OI $540-560; Put OI $350-400; Max pain $385/$430/$435

Verdict: Low pin risk; dealer long gamma $89M cushions

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $430.00/$410.00 put spread
Sell 430/410 put spread to collect premium with bullish tilt.
Credit: $4.41-$5.39
Max loss: $14.61
BE: $424.61
Mgmt: Exit if TSM closes below $426.54 or VIX > 20.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $420.00/$400.00 put wing and $520.00/$550.00 call wing
Sell 420/400 put and 520/550 call wings for IV crush.
Credit: $7.58-$9.27
Max loss: $20.73
BE: 410.73 / 529.27
Mgmt: Manage wings if price breaches $420 or $520; exit early.

Risk Alerts

!Spot near 1w guardrails $448.79-$475.44 may trigger volatility
!Front-week put skew extreme; watch tail events
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.