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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $392.61EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$15.53
4.0% from close
Price Gap
+7.39
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
1.41
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
TSM Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/16 (10 days out). IV elevated at 49-51% for near-term expirations, offering crush opportunities. Strong pinning regime with bullish flow suggests limited downside but watch for guidance-driven gap.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.6% from MP
Most important: Gamma flip at $330 and max pain at $330-$340 create strong pinning magnet; stock likely to gravitate toward these levels post-earnings.
📅Earnings confirmed 4/16, EPS est $3.30
📊100% EPS beat rate last 4 quarters – bullish bias

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Below $330, dealers amplify moves; above, they dampen volatility. Current spot $341.76 is above, supporting stability.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-16 (10 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (11d): ±$24.23 (7.1%)
  • 4/24 (18d): ±$29.05 (8.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated near-term: 4/10 49.3%, 4/17 51.1%, then declines to 44-46% for later expirations. Kink at 4/17 suggests earnings pricing.

Crush estimate: ~5-7 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~44-46% range.

Skew: P/C OI ratio 1.29 shows more put OI, but P/C volume 0.76 and net premium +$35.2M indicate bullish call buying.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit historical move data, but consistent EPS beats suggest positive bias.

Directional bias: Consistent EPS surprises support upside potential.

Key Levels

1$330.00 (gamma flip, max pain 4/10, put OI cluster)
2$340.00 (max pain 4/17, call/put OI cluster)
3$350.00 (GEX +$3.5M pin magnet)
4EM bounds: $312.71-$370.81

Flow Highlights

$340C 4/10: net premium +$14.1M (Call $16.8M vs Put $2.6M)

Massive bullish flow at near-the-money strike, indicating earnings upside bets.

Unusual: $340C 4/24: Vol 7,630 vs OI 571 (13.4x), ITM

Institutional accumulation of ITM calls for post-earnings move.

Strategies

Short strangle (IV crush)
Sell $320P / $360C 4/17
Credit: $6.50-$7.50
Max loss: Unlimited beyond strikes
Max gain: $6.50
BE: 313.5 / 366.5
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV >50%
Elevated IV at 51.1% for 4/17 offers premium; pinning to $330-$340 supports range-bound move.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $320-$360 (within EM bounds), IV crushes 5+ pts.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds 7.1% EM significantly.
Bull call spread
Buy $340C / Sell $350C 4/17
Max loss: $10.00
Max gain: Up to $10 less debit
BE: 340 + debit (~$342)
Trigger: Enter if bullish flow persists into earnings.
Bullish flow at $340C and historical beat rate support upside; defined risk vs long call.
Outperforms: Stock rises to $350+ post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock stays below $340 or gaps down.
Long straddle (directional breakout)
Buy $340 straddle 4/17
Max loss: $24.23
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 315.77 / 364.23
Trigger: Enter day before if IV hasn't spiked >55%.
Consistent EPS beats and elevated IV suggest potential for larger-than-expected move.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds 7.1% EM by >30%.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $340, IV crushes 5+ pts.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 7.1% EM ($317.54-$365.99) but could exceed on guidance given chip sector volatility.
!IV crush of 5-7 pts likely post-earnings; short premium strategies benefit, long premium suffers.
!Liquidity: High (1.47M OI, 119 active strikes) – no issues.
!Sizing: Keep positions small (<5% capital) due to pinning uncertainty.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/16 – if >55%, favor short premium.
?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $220P) for tail risk signals.
?Spot vs $330 gamma flip for pinning strength.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.