Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 4/16 (10 days out). IV elevated at 49-51% for near-term expirations, offering crush opportunities. Strong pinning regime with bullish flow suggests limited downside but watch for guidance-driven gap.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.6% from MP
Most important: Gamma flip at $330 and max pain at $330-$340 create strong pinning magnet; stock likely to gravitate toward these levels post-earnings.
📅Earnings confirmed 4/16, EPS est $3.30
📊100% EPS beat rate last 4 quarters – bullish bias
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Below $330, dealers amplify moves; above, they dampen volatility. Current spot $341.76 is above, supporting stability.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-16 (10 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 4/17 (11d): ±$24.23 (7.1%)
- 4/24 (18d): ±$29.05 (8.5%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Elevated near-term: 4/10 49.3%, 4/17 51.1%, then declines to 44-46% for later expirations. Kink at 4/17 suggests earnings pricing.
Crush estimate: ~5-7 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~44-46% range.
Skew: P/C OI ratio 1.29 shows more put OI, but P/C volume 0.76 and net premium +$35.2M indicate bullish call buying.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: No explicit historical move data, but consistent EPS beats suggest positive bias.
Directional bias: Consistent EPS surprises support upside potential.
Key Levels
1$330.00 (gamma flip, max pain 4/10, put OI cluster)
2$340.00 (max pain 4/17, call/put OI cluster)
3$350.00 (GEX +$3.5M pin magnet)
4EM bounds: $312.71-$370.81
Flow Highlights
$340C 4/10: net premium +$14.1M (Call $16.8M vs Put $2.6M)
Massive bullish flow at near-the-money strike, indicating earnings upside bets.
Unusual: $340C 4/24: Vol 7,630 vs OI 571 (13.4x), ITM
Institutional accumulation of ITM calls for post-earnings move.
Strategies
Short strangle (IV crush)
Sell $320P / $360C 4/17
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV >50%
Elevated IV at 51.1% for 4/17 offers premium; pinning to $330-$340 supports range-bound move.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $320-$360 (within EM bounds), IV crushes 5+ pts.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds 7.1% EM significantly.
Bull call spread
Buy $340C / Sell $350C 4/17
Trigger: Enter if bullish flow persists into earnings.
Bullish flow at $340C and historical beat rate support upside; defined risk vs long call.
Outperforms: Stock rises to $350+ post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock stays below $340 or gaps down.
Long straddle (directional breakout)
Buy $340 straddle 4/17
Trigger: Enter day before if IV hasn't spiked >55%.
Consistent EPS beats and elevated IV suggest potential for larger-than-expected move.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds 7.1% EM by >30%.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $340, IV crushes 5+ pts.
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: 7.1% EM ($317.54-$365.99) but could exceed on guidance given chip sector volatility.
!IV crush of 5-7 pts likely post-earnings; short premium strategies benefit, long premium suffers.
!Liquidity: High (1.47M OI, 119 active strikes) – no issues.
!Sizing: Keep positions small (<5% capital) due to pinning uncertainty.
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into 4/16 – if >55%, favor short premium.
?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $220P) for tail risk signals.
?Spot vs $330 gamma flip for pinning strength.