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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $414.00EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Aug 7, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.00
2.9% from close
Price Gap
-14.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
1.26
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 5, 2026 close
TSM Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 22, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Put Credit Spread
Invalidation: Close below $430
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17; override: Base 5, GEX +2, pinning +1, spot -1, VIX +1

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV (58.8%) well above VIX (17.3), favorable for premium sales
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep put skew at front (Put IV 102 vs Call IV 57), flattening into later expiries

📈Elevated IV & put skew boost premium collection

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+32.6M)

Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,783 (25.2% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $440, put floor $350-$430, heavy OI near spot

Verdict: High pin risk near $440, but strong put support at $350 provides buffer

Premium Opportunities

#1
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $450.00 put + sell $490.00 call
Sell OTM put and call to profit from range-bound price action
Credit: $30.40-$37.15
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 412.85 / 527.15
Mgmt: Adjust strikes if spot approaches; close at 50% max profit or before earnings
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $450.00/$445.00 put spread
Sell put spread above support to collect premium
Credit: $1.33-$1.62
Max loss: $3.38
BE: $448.38
Mgmt: Exit if spot nears $440, consider rolling Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at $350 if spot drops sharply
!Put OI concentration may pin price near $440
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.