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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $445.14EOD only
Max Pain
$425.00
Next expiry Sep 25, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.02
2.7% from close
Price Gap
-20.14
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.14
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 21, 2026 close
TSM Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 23, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Long call vertical spreads
Invalidation: TSM closes below $430 support
Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 59.4% vs VIX 19.5% - extraordinarily high, rich premiums
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Put IV spikes >90% in near week; backwardation in put skew

🚨Front-week put IV 93% signals extreme fear, risky for naked puts

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-2.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,292 (19.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI heavy at $400/$430; call wall $480-$560. Max pain $445.

Verdict: Spot $437 near but below max pain $445; pin risk moderate, slight upward drift expected into expiry

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $460.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $430.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy longer-term call to benefit from time decay and bullish move.
Debit: $28.49-$34.82
Max loss: $34.82
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close if TSM drops below $430; roll if short call tested.
#2
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $480.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $450.00 call
Sell short-dated call, buy slightly longer call to limit loss.
Debit: $18.20-$22.25
Max loss: $22.25
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit at $480 short leg test or expiry; adjust if momentum shifts.

Risk Alerts

!Dealer gamma -$2.2M amplifies spot moves; hedgers lean short
!Term structure shows elevated put skew in front month, near-term caution
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.