TSM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Outlook

Bullish with a magnet to $338-$340 max pain. Confidence: 8.5/10. Spot is now only 1.9% below max pain, GEX has flipped positive (+$4.2M), and net premium flow is strongly bullish (+$32.3M). The regime has shifted from conflicted trending to aligned pinning.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (both bullish); +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP. No overrides — mechanical score matches the clear regime shift.

Supports: GEX +$4.2M (pinning), net premium +$32.3M (bullish), P/C vol 0.63 (call dominance), spot proximity to MP.
Conflicts: P/C OI 1.39 shows lingering put-heavy positioning, but flow and GEX override.

🔄Regime shift: GEX flipped from -$46M to +$4M, flow from bearish to bullish.

🎯Spot $331.25 vs MP ~$338 — strong pinning gravity within 2-day expected move.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 44.3% is elevated but normalizing; still rich enough for premium selling in a pinning regime.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$4.2M concentrated near spot — dealers are long gamma, hedging will dampen volatility and pin price.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net prem +$32.3M with P/C vol 0.63 — clear institutional call buying, supporting the bullish pin.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 1.9% below MP — immediate gravitational pull upward toward $338-$340 cluster.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pins at $338-$340 persist across the next 4 expirations, GEX positive is stable, and bullish flow is consistent. This pinning regime should last 2-4 weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$320.40$342.10

Strong pinning within $320.40/$342.10 EM; break above $342.10 targets $350.

Next 2 weeks

$302.05$360.45

Max pain and positive GEX support a controlled ascent; $330 gamma flip is key support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $338 (2026-03-27); $332 (2026-04-02); $340 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $320.40/$342.10

Support: $330.00 · $175.00 · $330.00

Resistance: $340.00 · $400.00 · $500.00

Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,381

Structural: Massive call OI at $400-$500 caps major rallies; deep put floor at $175-$300 is a distant but structural support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.2M

DEX: +42.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$330 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,381)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip at ~$330. Dealers are long gamma here; they hedge by buying dips and selling rallies, suppressing volatility. A move below $330 could accelerate selling; a move above $340 reduces pinning pressure.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 44.3% is elevated — selling premium has edge in a pinning regime, but not extreme.

Term structure: Humped — 4/17 IV 50.6% > 4/10 IV 44.7%, pricing in 4/16 earnings event. Steep drop to ~46% by June.

Skew: ~5.9 vol-point differential between 4/17 (50.6%) and 6/18 (45.8%) — supports selling near-term, buying longer-dated vol (reverse calendar).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$32.3M bullish; P/C vol 0.63 (call dominance), P/C OI 1.39 (residual put OI).

Directional prints: $370C 6/18 vol 14,417 vs OI 3,141 (4.6x) — large, fresh OI build, likely bought calls targeting breakout. $340C 4/10 vol 2,112 vs OI 452 (4.7x) — near-term call buying targeting max pain. Interpretations: bought calls for upside or sold calls against the rally; buying is more consistent with bullish net premium.

Unusual: May $190/$195 puts trading at 85-89% IV — extreme tail-risk hedging or very expensive premium selling.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $330 — a close below breaks the pin and could accelerate selling.

!Earnings on 4/16 creates a binary vol crush event for April options.

!Residual put OI (P/C OI 1.39) indicates underlying bearish positioning that could resurface.

!VIX context: if broad market weakens, it could override the stock-specific pin.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Strong	Entry at $330 (near gamma flip), target $340.	Gamma flip break; time to pin resolution.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid; opposes GEX, flow, and max pain.	Squeeze to $340.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	If long, sell $340C 4/10 for ~$2.50 credit (at max pain).	Upside capped at key resistance; high IV aids premium.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $320/$315 put spread 4/10 for credit (~$1.00). Strike at 2-day EM low.	Break below $320.40 EM low.
Long calls	Moderate	Buy $335C 4/10, sell $345C 4/10 for debit call spread (~$2.50). Targets $340.	Time decay in elevated IV; defined risk helps.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	Avoid; regime strongly opposes.	Costly fade of pin and flow.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell $320/$315P x $345/$350C 4/10. Wings at 2-day EM bounds.	Earnings vol crush after 4/10 expiry is a non-issue for this expiration.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $340C 4/17 (IV 50.6%), buy $340C 6/18 (IV 45.8%) for a credit reverse calendar. Bet on IV crush post-earnings.	Spot runs past $340 before earnings.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $300C Jan 2027 (~$45), sell $340C 4/10 against it for ~$2.50. Finance long-dated bullish view with near-term IV.	Short call tested if pin runs quickly to $340.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread (Max Pain Pin)

Buy $335C / Sell $345C 4/10

Directly targets the $338-$340 max pain cluster with defined risk. Benefits from positive GEX pinning and bullish flow. Better than naked long calls due to reduced cost and IV sensitivity.

Debit: $2.25-$2.75

Max loss: $2.75

BE: $337.75

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max gain ($7.25). Exit if spot closes below $330.

Traders seeking a defined-risk, directional bet on the pin resolving upward this week.

Iron Condor (Pinning Range)

Sell $320/$315P x $345/$350C 4/10

Capitalizes on positive GEX pinning and elevated IV by selling strangles at the 2-day expected move bounds ($320.40/$342.10). High probability of spot staying within the range through expiry.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: P: 318.90, C: 346.10

Mgmt: Close at 60-80% max profit. Adjust if spot breaches $330 or $340.

Premium sellers comfortable with a neutral, range-bound view, seeking defined risk.

Reverse Calendar Spread (Vol Crush)

Sell $340C 4/17 / Buy $340C 6/18

Exploits the 4.8 vol-point differential between earnings-inflated April IV and lower June IV. The 30+ DTE long leg provides time for the IV convergence thesis to play out post-earnings, improving risk/reward versus a weekly play that would miss the catalyst. Earns a credit for betting on stability.

Credit: $4.50-$5.50

Max loss: Unlimited (managed by long call)

BE: Complex; optimal if spot near $340 at 4/17 expiry with IV drop.

Mgmt: Close for profit if IV differential halves. Roll short leg if spot approaches $340 too quickly.

Vol traders with a neutral-to-bullish view, looking to harvest rich near-term IV with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $330 (gamma flip) and bounces → Enter $335/$345 bull call spread 4/10.

IFSpot rallies to $337.50 (just below MP) and stalls → Sell $345/$350 call spread 4/10 for a credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $330 (gamma flip) → Exit all bullish and short put positions.

EXITSpot closes above $350 (above 2-day EM high) → Take profits on call spreads and iron condors.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A controlled grind higher toward $338-$340 max pain, supported by positive GEX pinning and bullish flow. Invalidation is a close below the $330 gamma flip. The regime favors selling premium around the pin (iron condors) and defined-risk directional bets on the pin (bull call spreads). Top plays: 1) Bull call spread for direct pin exposure, 2) Iron condor for high-probability premium collection, 3) Reverse calendar for harvesting rich near-term IV with a 30+ DTE buffer.

Read the Directional analysis for TSM for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.