Home Options TSMReports

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $392.61EOD only

Max Pain

$400.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.53

4.0% from close

Price Gap

+7.39

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.41

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

TSM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 6, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Bullish with a magnet to $338-$340 max pain. Confidence: 8.5/10. Spot is now only 1.9% below max pain, GEX has flipped positive (+$4.2M), and net premium flow is strongly bullish (+$32.3M). The regime has shifted from conflicted trending to aligned pinning.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (both bullish); +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP. No overrides — mechanical score matches the clear regime shift.

Supports: GEX +$4.2M (pinning), net premium +$32.3M (bullish), P/C vol 0.63 (call dominance), spot proximity to MP.
Conflicts: P/C OI 1.39 shows lingering put-heavy positioning, but flow and GEX override.

🔄Regime shift: GEX flipped from -$46M to +$4M, flow from bearish to bullish.

🎯Spot $331.25 vs MP ~$338 — strong pinning gravity within 2-day expected move.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 44.3% is elevated but normalizing; still rich enough for premium selling in a pinning regime.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$4.2M concentrated near spot — dealers are long gamma, hedging will dampen volatility and pin price.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net prem +$32.3M with P/C vol 0.63 — clear institutional call buying, supporting the bullish pin.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 1.9% below MP — immediate gravitational pull upward toward $338-$340 cluster.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pins at $338-$340 persist across the next 4 expirations, GEX positive is stable, and bullish flow is consistent. This pinning regime should last 2-4 weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$320.40$342.10

Strong pinning within $320.40/$342.10 EM; break above $342.10 targets $350.

Next 2 weeks

$302.05$360.45

Max pain and positive GEX support a controlled ascent; $330 gamma flip is key support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $338 (2026-03-27); $332 (2026-04-02); $340 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $320.40/$342.10

Support: $330.00 · $175.00 · $330.00

Resistance: $340.00 · $400.00 · $500.00

Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,381

Structural: Massive call OI at $400-$500 caps major rallies; deep put floor at $175-$300 is a distant but structural support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.2M

DEX: +42.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$330 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,381)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip at ~$330. Dealers are long gamma here; they hedge by buying dips and selling rallies, suppressing volatility. A move below $330 could accelerate selling; a move above $340 reduces pinning pressure.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 44.3% is elevated — selling premium has edge in a pinning regime, but not extreme.

Term structure: Humped — 4/17 IV 50.6% > 4/10 IV 44.7%, pricing in 4/16 earnings event. Steep drop to ~46% by June.

Skew: ~5.9 vol-point differential between 4/17 (50.6%) and 6/18 (45.8%) — supports selling near-term, buying longer-dated vol (reverse calendar).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$32.3M bullish; P/C vol 0.63 (call dominance), P/C OI 1.39 (residual put OI).

Directional prints: $370C 6/18 vol 14,417 vs OI 3,141 (4.6x) — large, fresh OI build, likely bought calls targeting breakout. $340C 4/10 vol 2,112 vs OI 452 (4.7x) — near-term call buying targeting max pain. Interpretations: bought calls for upside or sold calls against the rally; buying is more consistent with bullish net premium.

Unusual: May $190/$195 puts trading at 85-89% IV — extreme tail-risk hedging or very expensive premium selling.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $330 — a close below breaks the pin and could accelerate selling.

!Earnings on 4/16 creates a binary vol crush event for April options.

!Residual put OI (P/C OI 1.39) indicates underlying bearish positioning that could resurface.

!VIX context: if broad market weakens, it could override the stock-specific pin.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Strong	Entry at $330 (near gamma flip), target $340.	Gamma flip break; time to pin resolution.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid; opposes GEX, flow, and max pain.	Squeeze to $340.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	If long, sell $340C 4/10 for ~$2.50 credit (at max pain).	Upside capped at key resistance; high IV aids premium.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $320/$315 put spread 4/10 for credit (~$1.00). Strike at 2-day EM low.	Break below $320.40 EM low.
Long calls	Moderate	Buy $335C 4/10, sell $345C 4/10 for debit call spread (~$2.50). Targets $340.	Time decay in elevated IV; defined risk helps.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	Avoid; regime strongly opposes.	Costly fade of pin and flow.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell $320/$315P x $345/$350C 4/10. Wings at 2-day EM bounds.	Earnings vol crush after 4/10 expiry is a non-issue for this expiration.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $340C 4/17 (IV 50.6%), buy $340C 6/18 (IV 45.8%) for a credit reverse calendar. Bet on IV crush post-earnings.	Spot runs past $340 before earnings.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $300C Jan 2027 (~$45), sell $340C 4/10 against it for ~$2.50. Finance long-dated bullish view with near-term IV.	Short call tested if pin runs quickly to $340.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread (Max Pain Pin)

Buy $335C / Sell $345C 4/10

Directly targets the $338-$340 max pain cluster with defined risk. Benefits from positive GEX pinning and bullish flow. Better than naked long calls due to reduced cost and IV sensitivity.

Debit: $2.25-$2.75

Max loss: $2.75

BE: $337.75

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max gain ($7.25). Exit if spot closes below $330.

Traders seeking a defined-risk, directional bet on the pin resolving upward this week.

Iron Condor (Pinning Range)

Sell $320/$315P x $345/$350C 4/10

Capitalizes on positive GEX pinning and elevated IV by selling strangles at the 2-day expected move bounds ($320.40/$342.10). High probability of spot staying within the range through expiry.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: P: 318.90, C: 346.10

Mgmt: Close at 60-80% max profit. Adjust if spot breaches $330 or $340.

Premium sellers comfortable with a neutral, range-bound view, seeking defined risk.

Reverse Calendar Spread (Vol Crush)

Sell $340C 4/17 / Buy $340C 6/18

Exploits the 4.8 vol-point differential between earnings-inflated April IV and lower June IV. The 30+ DTE long leg provides time for the IV convergence thesis to play out post-earnings, improving risk/reward versus a weekly play that would miss the catalyst. Earns a credit for betting on stability.

Credit: $4.50-$5.50

Max loss: Unlimited (managed by long call)

BE: Complex; optimal if spot near $340 at 4/17 expiry with IV drop.

Mgmt: Close for profit if IV differential halves. Roll short leg if spot approaches $340 too quickly.

Vol traders with a neutral-to-bullish view, looking to harvest rich near-term IV with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $330 (gamma flip) and bounces → Enter $335/$345 bull call spread 4/10.

IFSpot rallies to $337.50 (just below MP) and stalls → Sell $345/$350 call spread 4/10 for a credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $330 (gamma flip) → Exit all bullish and short put positions.

EXITSpot closes above $350 (above 2-day EM high) → Take profits on call spreads and iron condors.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A controlled grind higher toward $338-$340 max pain, supported by positive GEX pinning and bullish flow. Invalidation is a close below the $330 gamma flip. The regime favors selling premium around the pin (iron condors) and defined-risk directional bets on the pin (bull call spreads). Top plays: 1) Bull call spread for direct pin exposure, 2) Iron condor for high-probability premium collection, 3) Reverse calendar for harvesting rich near-term IV with a 30+ DTE buffer.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.