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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $423.93EOD only

Max Pain

$380.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$19.50

4.6% from close

Price Gap

-43.93

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.45

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

TSM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by strong GEX/flow alignment and positive dealer gamma. Spot 16.2% above max pain ($380) reduces pinning, but guardrails $424.77–$458.02 (2d) and $406.35–$476.45 (2w) define drift. High base confidence (8) reflects aligned factors.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot far from MP; +1 VIX 16. Total 8.

Supports: GEX/flow alignment, positive dealer gamma, VIX supportive.
Conflicts: Spot well above max pain, mixed flow regime.

📈GEX +$32.3M and flow aligned – strong bullish dealer posture.

⚠️Spot 16.2% above MP ($380) – low pin attraction near expiry.

📊Two-day guardrails $424.77–$458.02 provide near-term range.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High: IV elevated vs VIX (16.2), likely pre-earnings or sector volatility. Typical range is normal, but current vol expanded.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: Positive GEX +$32.3M supports stability near key strikes. Flip at $400 (put OI concentration).

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: Total premium flow neutral, put/call balanced, no dominant directional bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above: Spot ~16.2% above max pain ($380), reducing magnetic pull but still in range.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Price ranges extend to two weeks with no immediate event catalyst. Dealer positioning supports drift within structural levels.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$424.77$458.02

Range $424.77–$458.02. Gamma support near low, resistance at high.

Next 2 weeks

$406.35$476.45

Range $406.35–$476.45. Positive gamma and flow alignment favor upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $380 (2026-06-18); $422 (2026-06-26); $415 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $424.77/$458.02

Support: $406.35 · $400.00

Resistance: $476.45 · $480.00

Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,863 (9.4% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $380 (6/18), $422 (6/26), $415 (7/2). EM guardrails 2d: $424.77–$458.02. Support $406.35, $400. Resistance $476.45, $480. Gamma flip ~$400.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+32.3M

DEX: +52.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$400 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,863 (9.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM GEX +$32.3M (positive). Gamma flip near $400 based on put OI concentration (27,863 contracts). DEX +52.1M shares (long delta).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Rich vs VIX (16.2): elevated IV suggests event premium (earnings) or sector rotation. Favors premium selling if range holds.

Term structure: Upward sloping with kink near 7/2 expiry (max pain $415), indicating event premium concentration. Front-month vols elevated.

Skew: Put skew elevated post-earnings; opportunity in call spreads or put credit spreads at structural support. Wide call skew offers upside premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $348M dominates despite higher put volume, indicating aggressive bullish positioning.

Directional prints: 46 call 462.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 17.8x suggests new bullish opening; likely bought OTM call. 77.6 put 330 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 17.6x suggests new bearish bets; likely bought OTM put as hedge. 53.3 call 570 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 7.5x suggests bullish speculation; likely bought OTM call.

Unusual: 133.3 put 165 OTM 2026-07-17 — Extreme IV 133% deep OTM put; likely sold for premium. 101.4 call 570 OTM 2026-06-18 — High IV 101% on $0.03 OTM call; lottery ticket buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot far above max pain reduces pinning efficacy.

!Gamma flip at $400 is 9.4% below spot; sharp move could accelerate.

!High IV may compress post-event.

!Mixed flow provides no extra directional conviction.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $440.00/$490.00 call spread Why now: Bullish GEX/flow, spot above max pain, multi-week duration supports upside	Upside limited; time decay hurts long leg
Long call	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $470.00 call Why now: Net call premium dominance and unusual flow signal upside momentum	High IV premium; time decay accelerates if flat
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$390.00 put spread Why now: Spot above max pain; put premiums rich at 430/420 for defined risk	If spot drops below short strike, losses limited but significant

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $440.00/$490.00 call spread

Capture upside from $440 to $490 with limited premium at risk.

Why this play: Best risk/reward; GEX and flow support upside. Defined max loss aligns with multi-week bullish view.

Debit: $15.30-$18.70

Max loss: $18.70

BE: $458.70

Mgmt: Exit below $406.35; target 50% max gain.

Traders wanting capped risk with bullish conviction.

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-17 $470.00 call

Pure directional bet on spot appreciation above $470.

Why this play: Unlimited upside potential from aggressive call flow; higher risk from IV crush post-earnings.

Debit: $14.02-$17.13

Max loss: $17.13

BE: $487.13

Mgmt: Stop at $406.35; consider rolling down if spot pulls back.

Aggressive traders with high upside conviction.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$390.00 put spread

Sell put spread below support to collect premium with bullish bias.

Why this play: Defined risk income play, but limited gain and less aligned with dominating call flow.

Credit: $4.52-$5.53

Max loss: $14.47

BE: $404.47

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks $406.35; watch IV expansion.

Conservative traders seeking defined risk income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $424.77 (2d guardrail) → Enter bull call spread: buy $440/$490 call spread near 15.3-18.7

IFSpot breaks and sustains above $458.02 (upper guardrail) → Buy $470 call near 14.02-17.13

IFSpot holds above $406.35 and bullish bias intact → Sell $410/$390 put spread for 4.52-5.53

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below $406.35 (invalidation level) → Exit all long positions and close spreads

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with strong GEX/flow alignment; spot above max pain. Key support $406.35, resistance $476.45. Favor bull call spread for defined risk. Monitor near-term guardrail $424.77.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.