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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $440.83EOD only

Max Pain

$442.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.73

3.6% from close

Price Gap

+1.67

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.37

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

TSM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias as bearish flow, short gamma, and spot below max pain ($442) pressure TSM lower. High vol and dealer hedging amplify moves. Key risk is a VIX spike.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +0.5 spot near MP +0.5 VIX 19 = 8. GEX negative $9.5M and 20% put OI at $350 reinforce bearish thesis.

Supports: Regime High vol, Trending gamma, Bearish flow, Spot below MP. DEX +47.2M shares but gamma short.
Conflicts: Low VIX (19) may cap volatility; QQQ +0.81% shows tech resilience.

🔻Bearish flow + short gamma: $GEX -$9.5M, dealers hedge to sell rips.

🎯Spot below max pain $442, pinned at $440 for next two expiries.

⚠️$350 gamma flip level with 19.5% put OI concentration – key downside target.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol High: IV elevated relative to VIX 19, driven by event risk and short gamma positioning.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma Trending: Dealer gamma negative (-$9.5M GEX), amplifying moves; flip at ~$350.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Flow Bearish: Net premium selling detected, put activity dominates.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot Below MP (~$442): Suggests downward pinning pressure toward $440-$435.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiry cycles (6/26, 7/2, 7/10) and max pain pins focus near-term price action within 2 weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$425.36$444.61

Test $425 support; max pain $442 acts as resistance.

Next 1 week

$411.71$458.26

Potential drift to $411 if $420 breaks; gamma flip @ $350 unlikely but watch.

Next 2 weeks

$401.49$468.49

Range $401-$468, bias lower unless VIX drops.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $442 (2026-06-26); $440 (2026-07-02); $440 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $425.36/$444.61; 1w $411.71/$458.26

Support: $420.00 · $401.49 · $400.00

Resistance: $442.50 · $468.49

Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,825 (19.5% below spot)

Structural: Support: $420 (2d EM guardrail), $401.49 (2w low), $400 (round). Resistance: $442.5 (max pain), $468.49 (2w high). Gamma flip: ~$350.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-9.5M

DEX: +47.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$350 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,825 (19.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Short gamma $9.5M; net long delta 47.2M shares. Concentrated put OI ~$350 (19.5% below spot) suggests dealer hedging that amplifies downside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich vs VIX 19, consistent with high vol regime; options expensive for sellers, attractive for premium collection.

Term structure: Contango with kinks at weekly expiries (6/26, 7/2, 7/10); near-term IV elevated relative to back months.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling OTM puts at $350 area for premium decay may be attractive given gamma flip distance.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$23.5M with put/call volume ratio 2.14 and OI ratio 1.37, indicating heavy put buying dominance.

Directional prints: 55.1 put 350 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 17.6, IV 55%. Massive new put activity; likely bought for bearish bet or hedge. 84.4 put 340 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 8.1, IV 84%. High IV put with strong volume; suggests aggressive bearish positioning. 47.3 put 420 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 7.5, volume 6068. Heavy put volume near spot; bearish flow preferred.

Unusual: 55.1 put 350 OTM 2026-07-31 — Extreme vol/OI 17.6; $350 put far OTM, likely sold or bought as tail hedge. 84.4 put 340 OTM 2026-07-02 — IV 84% unusually high; $340 put deep OTM with low OI, speculative put buying. 47.9 call 485 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 3.5, unusual call volume in bearish flow; possibly sold calls for income.

Risks & Catalysts

!Bullish catalyst: AI news or positive earnings surprise could trigger short squeeze given short gamma.

!Macro shift: VIX spike above 22 would accelerate downside and break gamma flip support.

!Time decay: Max pain pinning may keep spot range-bound near $440, limiting directional gains.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $430.00/$400.00 put spread Why now: Heavy put buying & dealer hedging suggest downside; max pain $442. Bear put spread limits risk, profits below lower strike	If TSM rallies above short put, max loss = net debit; time decay works against if delayed
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $470.00/$500.00 call spread Why now: Short gamma & put pressure limit upside; call credit spread near 450 collects premium with defined risk	If TSM surges above short call, max loss = width minus credit; time decay helps if flat
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $410.00 put Why now: Flow shows massive put activity; long put profits from continued decline	If TSM rallies, premium loss; time decay accelerates

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $430.00/$400.00 put spread

Buy $430/$400 put spread, benefiting from downside while capping loss.

Why this play: Best risk/reward for strong bearish flow; defined risk, profits below $400.

Debit: $9.77-$11.94

Max loss: $11.94

BE: $418.06

Mgmt: Exit if spot recovers above $442.50. Consider rolling if time decay accelerates.

Traders seeking defined risk bearish exposure.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-17 $410.00 put

Buy $410 put to capitalize on continued downside.

Why this play: Direct bearish play leveraging heavy put flow; high reward potential.

Debit: $9.92-$12.13

Max loss: $12.13

BE: $397.87

Mgmt: Monitor closely; set stop at $12.13 premium. Profit target below $400.

Aggressive traders with high risk tolerance.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $470.00/$500.00 call spread

Sell $470/$500 call spread, collecting premium with defined risk.

Why this play: Limits upside; profits if spot stays below $470.

Credit: $4.73-$5.78

Max loss: $24.22

BE: $475.78

Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $470. Manage gamma risk near expiration.

Traders expecting sideways to slightly lower price action.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot < $420 → Buy $430/$400 put spread at $9.77-$11.94

IFIF spot < $410 → Buy $410 put at $9.92-$12.13

IFIF spot < $442.5 → Sell $470/$500 call spread at $4.73-$5.78

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot reaches $400 → Take profit on $430/$400 put spread; roll $410 put if needed

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot > $442.5 → Close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias, short gamma, max pain $442. Spot below $442 pressures downside. Key support $420, $400. Resistance $442.5. High vol amplifies moves. Risk: VIX spike >22.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.