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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $441.40EOD only

Max Pain

$380.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$16.62

3.8% from close

Price Gap

-61.40

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.45

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 15, 2026 close

TSM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-bullish bias: gamma pinning near $425 supports near-term stability, but high vol and market weakness pose downside risk. Dealer hedging provides cushion; bias to trade within ranges with upside bias toward $439.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 positive gamma pinning, -1 spot 12.1% above MP, +1 moderate VIX

Supports: Positive GEX +$6.4M, gamma pinning near $425, moderate VIX 16, price range supports at $400 and $393
Conflicts: QQQ selloff -1.9%, spot 12.1% above max pain, high vol regime, gamma flip at $400

📊Gamma pinning near $425 supports near-term stability

⚠️High vol regime amid QQQ selloff raises caution

🛡️Dealer GEX +$6.4M provides hedging support

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol regime: IV elevated vs typical range driven by market selloff (QQQ -1.9%) and VIX 16.4

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning gamma: GEX +$6.4M positive, spot near $425 max pain, flip at ~$400, dealer hedging stabilizes

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium context balanced, put/call flows mixed per regime classification

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP: trades near $425 vs $380 max pain (6/18) and $425 (6/26), 12.1% above near-term MP

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expirations (6/18, 6/26, 7/2) and gamma pinning at $425 suggest event-specific dynamics

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$412.33$439.33

Gamma support near $425; range $412-$439

Next 1 week

$399.45$452.20

Key resistance $458; support $399

Next 2 weeks

$393.25$458.40

Support $393 on risk-off; resistance $458

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $380 (2026-06-18); $425 (2026-06-26); $415 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $412.33/$439.33; 1w $399.45/$452.20

Support: $400.00 · $393.25

Resistance: $458.40

Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,509 (6.1% below spot)

Structural: $380 max pain (6/18), $425 (6/26), $415 (7/2); 2d EM guardrails $412/$439, 1w $399/$452

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+6.4M

DEX: +52.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$400 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,509 (6.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$6.4M positively skewed, DEX +52.3M shares long, gamma flip ~$400

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX 16.4, reflecting equity-specific uncertainty and high vol regime

Term structure: Term structure steep: near-term expiries price weekly event uncertainty

Skew: Skew elevated on puts; no clear actionable structure without vol surface

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive $238M; put/call vol ratio 1.51 slight bearish volume but call premium dominates.

Directional prints: 49.8 call 480 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 5174 vs OI 163 (31.7x); likely bought calls; preferred read: bullish bet on upside. 45.6 put 400 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 1648 vs OI 302 (5.5x); likely bought puts; preferred read: bearish protection or directional.

Unusual: 49.8 call 480 OTM 2026-07-10 — Extreme vol/OI 31.7; massive call buying; unusual magnitude. 62.5 put 310 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 9542 vs OI 4919; large put volume; hedging or bearish speculation. 46.1 put 412.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1706 vs OI 940; moderate vol/OI 1.8; possible put selling noted.

Risks & Catalysts

!Market selloff (QQQ -1.9%) could break gamma support

!Spot 12.1% above max pain $380 may trigger mean reversion

!High vol regime amplifies directional moves

!Gamma flip at $400 could accelerate selloff if tested

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $420.00/$410.00 put spread Why now: Thesis expects upside to $439; defined risk at $410 support; high vol boosts premium.	Market selloff could breach support; max loss if stock below short put.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $420.00/$440.00 call spread Why now: Upside bias supported by call prints; defined risk at 425/440.	Upside limited to $15; downside if stock drops below 425. Substitutions: long_call: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $425.00 missing; used 2026-07-17 $420.00.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$400.00 put wing and $440.00/$450.00 call wing Why now: Gamma pinning near $425; high vol boosts premium; range 410-450.	Tail risk if stock breaks out of range. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $402.50 missing; used 2026-07-17 $400.00.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $420.00/$440.00 call spread

Buy 420/440 call spread to capture upside to $439 with limited risk.

Why this play: Direct upside play supported by bullish thesis and call flow. Max gain $10.46, defined loss.

Debit: $7.81-$9.54

Max loss: $9.54

BE: $429.54

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $400 invalidation level.

Traders expecting moderate upside with defined risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $420.00/$410.00 put spread

Sell 420/410 put spread, benefiting from stability and time decay.

Why this play: Bullish theta play with high vol premium; defined risk at $410 support.

Credit: $3.96-$4.84

Max loss: $5.16

BE: $415.16

Mgmt: Close if spot drops below $400.

Traders expecting limited downside and steady rise.

Iron Condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$400.00 put wing and $440.00/$450.00 call wing

Sell 410/400 put wing and 440/450 call wing to profit from narrow range.

Why this play: Range play with gamma pinning near $425; high vol premium.

Credit: $7.04-$8.61

Max loss: $1.39

BE: 401.39 / 448.61

Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot breaches 410 or 440.

Traders expecting low volatility and pinning.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $412 (2d EM lower guardrail) and bias remains bullish → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $420/$440 call spread at $7.81-$9.54

IFIF spot stays above $410 support level with stability → THEN sell 2026-07-17 $420/$410 put spread at $3.96-$4.84

IFIF spot near $425 and range-bound between $410 and $440 → THEN sell 2026-07-17 $410/$400 put wing + $440/$450 call wing iron condor

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $400 gamma flip level → THEN close all bullish spreads and IC; reduce risk

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bullish bias with upside to $439. Use bull call spread on strength above $412, put credit spread on support at $410, or iron condor near $425. Exit if spot breaks $400. Manage trades based on key levels.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.