Home Options TSMReports

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $462.12EOD only

Max Pain

$430.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$13.32

2.9% from close

Price Gap

-32.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.38

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

TSM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Slightly bullish near-term due to positive dealer gamma pinning near $440 and strong GEX alignment, but caution from elevated IV and spot above MP. Prefer bullish leans within ranges.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 positive gamma; -1 spot 6.3% above MP; +1 VIX 17 => 8

Supports: Strong positive GEX +$32.6M, pinning near $440, high vol favorable for premium selling
Conflicts: Spot above MP, elevated IV, mixed flow, gamma flip at $350 far below

📌Positive gamma pinning near $440 with GEX +$32.6M

⚠️Spot 6.3% above MP $440; resistance $480-$500

📊IV high; term structure steep, skew rich

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol driven by election uncertainty and sector rotation; IV above 30th percentile of recent range

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma pinning near $440; GEX +$32.6M supports proximity to max pain

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow with put OI concentration at $350 (25.2% below spot) acting as downside anchor

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at $466.13 is 6.3% above max pain $440; above MP but supported by positive gamma

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly max pain pins at $440 (Jun 26, Jul 2) and gamma flip at $350 create event-driven dynamics

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$437.20$498.15

Pinning near $440; resistance at $480

Next 2 weeks

$427.10$508.25

Wider range; gamma flip $350 support

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $440 (2026-06-26); $440 (2026-07-02); $430 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $437.20/$498.15

Support: $440.00 · $430.00 · $427.10

Resistance: $480.00 · $500.00 · $508.25

Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,783 (25.2% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $440 (Jun 26/Jul 2); $430 (Jul 10). Support $440/$430/$427.1; resistance $480/$500/$508.25. Gamma flip ~$350 (put OI conc.)

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+32.6M

DEX: +47.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$350 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,783 (25.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma +$32.6M (positive); dealer long gamma near $440; gamma flip at ~$350

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSM IV elevated vs VIX (17.3); rich for premium selling but supported by election/growth narrative

Term structure: Term structure steep; front-end elevated due to weekly expiries; backwardation in near months

Skew: Put skew rich; consider call spreads or put credit spreads around $440 for theta decay

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$133.6M, call premium dominates despite higher put volume (put/call ratio 1.31).

Directional prints: 50.1 call 502.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2145, OI 174, vol/OI 12.3; heavy OTM call buying, possibly bullish but premium small. 50.5 call 507.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2055, OI 260, vol/OI 7.9; significant OTM call buying, adds to bullish bias. 52.6 put 432.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 1089, OI 254, vol/OI 4.3; bearish put buying, but OTM suggests hedging/directional.

Unusual: 100.2 put 240 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol 811, OI 126, vol/OI 6.4, IV 100%; deep OTM put with extreme IV, speculative bearish bet. 86.8 put 377.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 346, OI 128, vol/OI 2.7, IV 87%; deep OTM put, high vol on low OI, unusual bearish positioning. 54.1 call 530 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 602, OI 173, vol/OI 3.5; very OTM call, small premium, likely bullish speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot above MP $440 may pull back to pin

!Gamma flip at $350 is far; drop could accelerate dealer hedging

!High vol could contract post-election

!Resistance at $480-$500 cap upside

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $450.00/$460.00 call spread Why now: GEX support at $440, IV high but bias up. Defined risk.	Max loss = debit if spot falls.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $450.00/$440.00 put spread Why now: Spot above $440 gamma pin, low probability of put exercise.	Max loss = spread width if spot drops below long put. Substitutions: short_put: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $447.50 missing; used 2026-07-17 $450.00.; long_put: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $445.00 missing; used 2026-07-17 $440.00.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $460.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $450.00 call Why now: Sell rich near-term vol, own cheap back-month call for upside.	If spot jumps past short strike early, capped upside.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $450.00/$460.00 call spread

Buy $450/$460 call spread for directional upside with limited loss.

Why this play: Best aligned with bullish bias and GEX support at $440, defined risk, high IV supports premium selling but this buys calls for upside.

Debit: $5.13-$6.27

Max loss: $6.27

BE: $456.27

Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $440 or IV collapses. Take profit near $460.

Short-term bullish traders seeking defined risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $450.00/$440.00 put spread

Sell $450/$440 put spread to earn theta and bullish sentiment.

Why this play: Capitalizes on gamma pin near $440, low probability of put exercise, collects premium.

Credit: $3.42-$4.18

Max loss: $5.82

BE: $445.82

Mgmt: Roll down if spot approaches $440. Close at 50% max profit.

Income-focused traders expecting support to hold.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-17 $460.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $450.00 call

Sell short-dated $460 call, buy longer-dated $450 call to capture vol premium.

Why this play: Sells rich near-term volatility and buys long-term upside; best for neutral-to-bullish outlook.

Debit: $17.24-$21.07

Max loss: $21.07

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Adjust strikes if spot moves significantly; monitor vol surface.

Advanced traders expecting vol contraction with upside drift.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $440 support for 2 sessions. → Buy 2026-07-17 $450/$460 bull call spread ($5.13-$6.27 debit).

IFSpot between $440-$450 with bullish momentum. → Sell 2026-07-17 $450/$440 put credit spread ($3.42-$4.18 credit).

IFIV contracts and spot above $440. → Enter call diagonal: sell 2026-07-17 $460 call / buy 2026-08-21 $450 call ($17.24-$21.07 debit).

Adjustment Triggers

ADJSpot closes below $440. → Close put credit spread and bull call spread; avoid new bullish plays.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot reaches $460 within 10 days. → Take profit on bull call spread and call diagonal.

Tactical Summary

TSM bullish near-term with dealer pin at $440. Prefer bull call spread (rank 1) for defined risk. Watch IV for contraction. Invalidation below $440. Resistance at $480.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.