TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $425.83EOD onlyThis page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
Neutral-bullish bias with pinning gamma and high vol; spot above MP but dealer long gamma supports near term. Risk of pullback if VIX spikes due to broad selloff. Thesis: range-bound with pinning to $425 near weekly expiry.
Conflicts: Spot far above MP (13%), high vol regime may amplify moves, mixed flow.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $+19.8M
DEX: +55.5M shares
Gamma flip: ~$400 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,194 (7.4% below spot))
NTM gamma: Net GEX +$19.8M (long gamma), DEX +55.5M shares. Gamma flip ~$400 (put OI wall 27.2k contracts). Dealer long gamma stabilizes spot, magnets toward $425.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: IV is rich vs VIX given High vol regime; VIX at 18.44 implies elevated market vol, but TSM IV likely higher due to stock-specific risk.
Term structure: Term structure likely in contango due to elevated vol; near-term expiries (weekly) have higher IV from event risk (Jun 18 expiry).
Skew: Put skew elevated due to put concentration at $400; potential call overwriting strategy to capture elevated IV if bullish.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net premium $154M positive but P/C volume 1.54 shows put dominance indicating bearish flow.
Directional prints: 46.1 put 440 ITM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 6.1 high put volume suggests bearish positioning likely bought puts. 67.7 put 300 OTM 2026-07-24 — Deep OTM put vol/OI 4.2 tail hedging activity bearish skew. 46.9 put 425 OTM 2026-06-26 — Near ATM put vol/OI 4.2 bearish put buying.
Unusual: 49.5 call 440 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 8.0 extreme call activity speculative buying or covering. 46.1 put 440 ITM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 6.1 straddle component high activity on both sides. 54.8 call 560 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 5.0 deep OTM call low premium upside speculation.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put credit spread | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-07-17 $400.00/$380.00 put spread Why now: Put flow dominance but spot above MP and dealer gamma support suggests limited downside below $420. Use 420/415 spread to capture premium while hedging tail. | Broader selloff below $415 could exceed max loss; IV expansion may widen spread before earnings. |
| Iron condor | Moderate | Sell 2026-07-17 $400.00/$380.00 put wing and $470.00/$500.00 call wing Why now: Pinning gamma and neutral bias make iron condor attractive; sell wings at $430c/$420p with protection at $435c/$415p to limit tail risk. | Earnings gap risk; sharp move beyond wings can exceed max loss; vol crush may reduce credit. |
| Bull call spread | Moderate | Buy 2026-07-17 $440.00/$470.00 call spread Why now: Spot above MP and dealer gamma support near term; call spread at 425/440 benefits from pinning but allows upside to $440 without high premium outlay. | Failure to hold $425 leads to decay; earnings miss could trigger downside; max loss limited to debit paid. |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.