TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $436.39EOD onlyThis page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
TSM exhibits a pinning regime near max pain $440-$442 with positive gamma and dealer long delta. High vol and mixed flow suggest limited directional conviction near term. Bias neutral within ranges, with a slight upside lean toward resistance $442.5. Strength in GEX/flow alignment supports pinning, limiting large moves. Override confidence to 9.0 reflects strong alignment vs formula.
Conflicts: High vol regime, mixed flow, put concentration at 350.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $+2.0M
DEX: +47.2M shares
Gamma flip: ~$350 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,361 (20.6% below spot))
NTM gamma: GEX +$2.0M, DEX +47.2M shares. Gamma flip at ~350 based on put OI 21,361 contracts (20.6% below spot).
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: TSM IV likely rich relative to VIX 18.6 given high vol regime and event risk; premium for pinning.
Term structure: Likely contango with front-end elevated near expiries; kinks at Jun 26, Jul 2, Jul 10.
Skew: Put skew due to downside protection; opportunity to sell premium near MP with defined risk.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Positive net premium $52.9M, P/C vol 1.25, OI 1.37, indicating net put buying.
Directional prints: 51 put 440 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 4.5, unusual; likely bought opening. Preferred read: bearish. 50.6 call 445 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 3.8; may be hedging given net put bias. Preferred read: neutral. 52.5 put 390 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 3.5; likely bought. Preferred read: bearish.
Unusual: 127.8 put 270 OTM 2026-07-02 — Deep OTM put, IV 127.8%, vol/OI 2.7; speculative tail buy. Preferred read: bearish. 67.2 put 200 OTM 2026-11-20 — Deep OTM put, IV 67.2%, vol/OI 2.2; long-dated protection. Preferred read: bearish. 51.3 call 510 OTM 2026-07-10 — Far OTM call, vol/OI 2.9; speculative upside. Preferred read: bullish.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put credit spread | Moderate | Sell 2026-07-17 $400.00/$390.00 put spread Why now: Positive gamma and dealer long delta support pinning; slight upside lean. | If spot breaks below 420, gamma flip amplifies downside beyond short strike. |
| Iron condor | Moderate | Sell 2026-07-17 $390.00/$370.00 put wing and $510.00/$530.00 call wing Why now: High vol and mixed flow support selling wings; pinning likely near earnings. | Sharp breakout beyond wings can cause losses; high vol regime amplifies moves. |
| Call calendar | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-07-10 $440.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $440.00 call Why now: Term structure supports calendar; slight upside lean but limited near-term conviction. | If spot drops sharply, both legs lose; vega risk from vol changes. |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.