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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $440.83EOD only
Max Pain
$442.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$15.73
3.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
18
Low premium
P/C OI
1.37
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
TSM Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSM has a 100% beat rate, but bearish flow with high put/call ratio suggests skepticism ahead of earnings.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Heavy put accumulation, especially deep OTM, signals downside hedging or bearish bets despite perfect history.
🐻Put volume 2.1x calls; unusual $350P sweep suggests downside conviction
📊100% beat streak intact, but flow is increasingly defensive

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,825 (19.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (21 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$9.62 (2.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (7d): ±$23.28 (5.4%)
  • 2026-07-10 (15d): ±$33.50 (7.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: 1d 2.2%, 7d 5.4%, 15d 7.7% reflecting earnings uncertainty

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings contraction expected (~50% IV drop)

Skew: Put skew elevated across expirations, driven by aggressive put buying

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves often exceed implied, given 100% beat rate

Directional bias: Historically bullish post-earnings due to consistent beats

Key Levels

1$350.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $425.36/$444.61; 1w $411.71/$458.26
3Max pain pins: $442 (2026-06-26); $440 (2026-07-02); $440 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put volume: $350 (17.6x OI), $340 (8.1x), $420 (7.5x) puts

Hedging or bearish speculation targeting sharp downside

Call buying at $442.5 and $462.5 but dwarfed by put activity

Bullish bets limited; overall flow bearish

Strategies

Range-Bound IV Crush
Sell 2026-07-10 $420.00/$410.00 put wing and $440.00/$450.00 call wing
Credit: $6.10-$7.45
Max loss: $2.55
Max gain: $7.45
BE: 412.55 / 447.45
Trigger: Close at 50% max profit or by 7/16 expiration; adjust if stock breaks 420/440.
High IV and defined support/resistance make iron condor ideal; earnings beat history suggests limited downside.
Outperforms: Sells wings at 420/410 put and 440/450 call; benefits from IV crush and range-bound move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Bullish Beat Play
Buy 2026-07-17 $430.00/$450.00 call spread
Debit: $8.28-$10.12
Max loss: $10.12
Max gain: $9.88
BE: $440.12
Trigger: Sell if stock drops below 430; take profit at 450.
100% beat rate and historical post-earnings rally support debit spread; high IV offers cheap entry.
Outperforms: Buy 430/450 call spread; profits if TSM exceeds 440 by expiration.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Term Structure Edge
Sell 2026-07-10 $445.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $450.00 call
Debit: $15.21-$18.59
Max loss: $18.59
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll or close if short leg ITM; monitor IV skew.
Steep term structure and earnings uncertainty; front-month decay funds back-month call on potential rally.
Outperforms: Sell 445 call front, buy 450 call back; gains from time decay and IV expansion in back month.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-10 $420.00 put + sell $450.00 call
Credit: $18.70-$22.85
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $22.85
BE: 397.15 / 472.85
High put/call ratio and bearish flow create elevated premium, but 100% beat rate suggests limited downside; sell front-month strangle at support/resistance.
Outperforms: Sell OTM call and put before TSM earnings to capture elevated implied volatility, expecting stock to stay within range.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Heavy put buildup may amplify downside if earnings disappoint
!Gamma flip at $350 (put OI concentration) could accelerate selloff
!High IV environment raises cost of options strategies

What to Watch

?Earnings date 7/16; IV crush post-release
?Max pain $440; key support $420, resistance $442.5
?Put/Call ratio >2; unusual prints for directional clues
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.