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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $462.12EOD only
Max Pain
$430.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.32
2.9% from close
Price Gap
-32.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.38
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
TSM Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSM earnings in 28 days; strong net call flow and positive gamma pinning; 100% beat rate but spot far from max pain.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 20.0% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Net premium $390M bullish, but high put OI concentration below spot poses pin risk.
🚀Bullish flow with $390M net call premium.
⚠️Spot 20% above max pain; pin risk.
📊100% beat rate, but no data on move magnitude.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 26,643 (13.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (28 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$13.32 (2.9%)
  • 2026-07-02 (14d): ±$35.57 (7.7%)
  • 2026-07-10 (22d): ±$44.12 (9.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep upward slope; 8d 2.9%, 14d 7.7%, 22d 9.5% as earnings nears.

Crush estimate: Substantial post-earnings IV crush expected, ~40-60%.

Skew: Put OI ratio 1.38 with deep OTM put prints; skew modestly put-biased.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available

Directional bias: Bullish based on flow and gamma pinning.

Key Levels

1$400.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $448.79/$475.44
3Max pain pins: $385 (2026-06-18); $430 (2026-06-26); $435 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

6/18 $455C vol 19,482 vs OI 1,761 (11x OI)

Aggressive near-dated call buying.

6/26 $335P vol 1,548 vs OI 103 (15x OI)

Tail hedge positioning.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $470.00/$510.00 call spread
Debit: $12.22-$14.93
Max loss: $14.93
Max gain: $25.07
BE: $484.93
Trigger: Exit if spot breaks below $426.54.
Aligned with bullish flow and gamma pinning; limited risk.
Outperforms: Buy 470/510 call spread for directional upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-07-24 $430.00 put + buy $510.00 call
Debit: $25.65-$31.35
Max loss: $31.35
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 398.65 / 541.35
Trigger: Set profit target near expected move.
Captures potential large move; cheaper than straddle.
Outperforms: Buy OTM put and call for volatility expansion.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $440.00 put + sell $480.00 call
Credit: $37.53-$45.87
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $45.87
BE: 394.13 / 525.87
Trigger: Monitor spot near $440 put and $480 call. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Benefits from IV crush if spot stays within range.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call to collect premium.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-07-24 $470.00 put + buy $470.00 call
Debit: $54.32-$66.39
Max loss: $66.39
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 403.61 / 536.39
Earnings catalyst and elevated implied vol; straddle captures move.
Outperforms: Profit from large post-earnings move regardless of direction.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot ~$460, max pain $385 (6/18); pin risk if spot drifts down.
!Earnings miss could test support $426.54.
!VIX 16.4 elevated but not extreme.

What to Watch

?Net premium flow continuation in calls.
?Gamma flip level near $400.
?IV expansion approaching earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.