thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTSMReports

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $462.12EOD only
Max Pain
$430.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.32
2.9% from close
Price Gap
-32.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.38
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
TSM Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSM earnings 24 days out. IV elevated, historical beat rate 100%. Key levels: max pain $440, put floor $430, call wall $500-$560. Mixed flow: upside calls and defensive puts.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: High OTM call volume in weekly (502.5/507.5) and deep OTM put (240) suggest positioning for outsized move. Put floor at $440 with high OI.
📈100% beat rate (5/5) supports bullish tilt but market is pricing cautious via put skew.
⚠️Mixed flow: speculative upside calls alongside defensive puts – no clear directional conviction.
📊Key gamma flip zone near $440 (max pain) – spot above suggests pinning to $460.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,783 (25.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (24 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$21.30 (4.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$30.47 (6.5%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$40.57 (8.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Expected moves: 4.6% (4d), 6.5% (10d), 8.7% (24d) – steepening term. 24d expiration captures post-earnings IV.

Crush estimate: Moderate post-earnings crush (20-30% IV drop) from 24d IV level. Current 24d IV ~8.7% vs 4d ~4.6% shows event premium.

Skew: Puts dominate volume ratio (1.31), OTM puts trade at high IV (deep OTM $240 put IV 100.2%). Calls active at $502.5/$507.5 (50% IV).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beats 5/5 quarters (100%). Avg move data not available but beats suggest potential upside bias.

Directional bias: Bullish based on consistent beats; however, current positioning hedged with puts.

Key Levels

1$350.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $437.20/$498.15
3Max pain pins: $440 (2026-06-26); $440 (2026-07-02); $430 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume at $502.5 and $507.5 (weekly) – 2145 vs OI 174, 2055 vs 260. Also large put volume at $432.5 and $460.

Aggressive upside bets near $500 coinciding with resistance; simultaneous put hedging at ATM/protection levels.

Deep OTM put $240 (July 24) volume 811 vs OI 126 (6.4x ratio).

Speculative downside tail hedge; low probability but high payoff if selloff.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $470.00/$490.00 call spread
Debit: $7.74-$9.46
Max loss: $9.46
Max gain: $10.54
BE: $479.46
Trigger: Exit if spot drops below $440.
Top choice due to bullish earnings bias and defined risk.
Outperforms: Buy $470/$490 call spread to capture upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Straddle
Buy 2026-07-17 $470.00 put + buy $470.00 call
Debit: $46.30-$56.59
Max loss: $56.59
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 413.41 / 526.59
Trigger: Close before earnings or use stop.
Outsized move expected from high OTM activity.
Outperforms: Buy $470 put and call for non-directional volatility.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $440.00/$437.50 put wing and $480.00/$482.50 call wing
Credit: $0.93-$1.13
Max loss: $1.37
Max gain: $1.13
BE: 438.87 / 481.13
Trigger: Adjust if spot approaches $480 or $440.
Profits from IV crush if move moderate.
Outperforms: Sell $440/$437.5 put and $480/$482.5 call.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call calendar
Sell 2026-06-26 $480.00 call / buy 2026-07-02 $480.00 call
Debit: $4.14-$5.06
Max loss: $5.06
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Near-term IV elevated vs back-month; calendar profits from IV decline.
Outperforms: Sell pre-earnings premium, buy post-earnings to exploit term structure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush post-earnings (currently expensive).
!Gap risk: spot 6.3% above max pain $440 for June 26; pinning risk to $460 (high put OI).
!Call OI wall at $500-$560 may cap upside if earnings miss.

What to Watch

?Earnings date confirmation and any guidance.
?Volume and OI changes near $440 (max pain) and $460 (key put strike).
?Call open interest accumulation at $500+ (resistance).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.