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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $423.93EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$19.50
4.6% from close
Price Gap
-43.93
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
62
High premium
P/C OI
1.45
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
TSM Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSM earnings 34 days out; 100% beat rate; large implied moves; IV elevated; flow mixed with hedging.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: High confidence in typical beat but move magnitude uncertain; watch gamma pin at $425 for front week.
💯100% beat rate over 5 quarters.
⚠️Put OI ratio 1.45; heavy hedging despite net call premium.
📈Near-term IV at 36% annualized; steep term structure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,643 (5.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (34 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (6d): ±$19.50 (4.6%)
  • 2026-06-26 (14d): ±$30.22 (7.1%)
  • 2026-07-02 (20d): ±$36.60 (8.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV ~36% annualized; long-term higher due to earnings uncertainty; steep contango.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV expected drop 40-60% from pre-event levels.

Skew: Put skew moderate; put OI ratio 1.45 suggests protective positioning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not determinable; 100% beat rate suggests moves may be less than implied.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish from consistent beats.

Key Levels

1$400.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $404.43/$443.43
3Max pain pins: $425 (2026-06-12); $380 (2026-06-18); $425 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

High volume on $417.5 put expiring today; vol/oi 10.4 at $0.01.

Likely hedging activity; rolling protection as spot near $425.

Deep OTM $660 calls for Jul2 and Jul10 with vol 710 each.

Speculative long-dated upside bets; may indicate bullish expectations beyond earnings.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $400.00 put + sell $440.00 call
Credit: $30.22-$36.93
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $36.93
BE: 363.07 / 476.93
Trigger: Exit before earnings or adjust on breach.
Profits from IV crush; high beat rate reduces tail risk.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to capture elevated premium.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-18 $430.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $460.00 call
Debit: $5.13-$6.27
Max loss: $6.27
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short call if tested.
Captures contango and pre-earnings IV; limited risk.
Outperforms: Sells near-term call, buys later call for upside with theta decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long Straddle
Buy 2026-07-17 $430.00 put + buy $430.00 call
Debit: $46.58-$56.93
Max loss: $56.93
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 373.07 / 486.93
Trigger: Use stop loss to limit IV crush impact.
Highest risk; IV crush likely offsets move gains.
Outperforms: Buys put and call for unlimited profit if large move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss unlikely per history but always possible.
!IV crush post-event can hurt long premium positions.
!Gamma pin at $425 front week may trap price.

What to Watch

?Whether TSM holds above $425 support into next week.
?Implied volatility trends; currently elevated near 36% for weekly.
?Flow into contracts with earnings exposure (e.g., Jul16 weekly).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.