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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $441.40EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$16.62
3.8% from close
Price Gap
-61.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
92
High premium
P/C OI
1.45
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
TSM Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High IV, 100% beat rate, but 30 days out. Large put/call ratio suggests hedging. Bullish bias from history.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.1% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: IV crush and gamma flip at $400 before earnings.
📞Unusual call activity at $480 7/10 (31.7x OI)
🛡️Heavy put buying at $310 7/17 (1.9x OI)
📊100% beat rate last 5 quarters

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,509 (6.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (30 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (2d): ±$13.50 (3.2%)
  • 2026-06-26 (10d): ±$26.38 (6.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (16d): ±$32.57 (7.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango; 2d IV ~45%, 30d ~50%, far OTM puts >70%.

Crush estimate: 30-50% post-event IV drop.

Skew: Put skew elevated; put/call ratio 1.5.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move near implied; consistent beats.

Directional bias: Bullish (100% beat rate).

Key Levels

1$400.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $412.33/$439.33; 1w $399.45/$452.20
3Max pain pins: $380 (2026-06-18); $425 (2026-06-26); $415 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual $480 Call 7/10 (31.7x OI) and $310 Put 7/17 (1.9x OI).

Bullish bets at $480; deep protection at $310.

Strategies

Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $470.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $460.00 call
Debit: $5.69-$6.96
Max loss: $6.96
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Manage gamma near earnings; close before expiry.
Steep contango and IV crush post-earnings favor short call; 100% beat rate supports bullish bias.
Outperforms: Collects premium from short dated call while long dated call provides upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Put Calendar
Sell 2026-07-10 $390.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $390.00 put
Debit: $2.99-$3.66
Max loss: $3.66
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit before earnings or at 50% max profit.
Elevated put vol and contango; IV crush benefits short put.
Outperforms: Neutral to slightly bullish; sells high IV, buys lower IV.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $400.00 put + buy $470.00 call
Debit: $20.38-$24.91
Max loss: $24.91
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 375.09 / 494.91
Trigger: Set profit target; accept loss if no move.
100% beat rate and high IV could produce large move exceeding premium cost.
Outperforms: Benefits from post-earnings directional move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-07-17 $430.00 put + buy $430.00 call
Debit: $44.55-$54.45
Max loss: $54.45
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 375.55 / 484.45
100% beat rate and high IV suggest potential for move exceeding crush.
Outperforms: Buy ATM straddle to profit from large post-earnings move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush post-earnings
!Gamma flip at $400 support
!Spot near resistance $458

What to Watch

?Spot vs $380-$425 MP range
?Open interest at $480 calls
?Unusual put activity at far OTM
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.