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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $436.39EOD only
Max Pain
$445.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$19.05
4.4% from close
Price Gap
+8.61
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
17
Low premium
P/C OI
1.36
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
TSM Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSM earnings setup: strong historical beat rate (100%), elevated IV, put-heavy flow signaling downside hedging. Event ~22 days out, term structure steep. Confidence high.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Put-heavy flow + 100% beat rate create tension; IV crush post-event likely substantial.
⚠️Put/call OI ratio 1.37 vs vol ratio 1.25: put flow dominates, but call volume building post-440.
📈Max pain at $440 across multiple expirations acts as magnetic pin.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,361 (20.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (22 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$15.72 (3.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (8d): ±$28.00 (6.4%)
  • 2026-07-10 (16d): ±$36.85 (8.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: short-dated IV ~43% (2d), term structures up to 51%+ for weekly expirations; event IV priced in slowly.

Crush estimate: Moderate to large (25-40% IV drop) post-earnings, typical for high IV rank events.

Skew: Put skew elevated: put/call OI ratio 1.37, put volume 1.25x calls. Downside protection dominant.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided; beat rate 100% (5/5 quarters) suggests consistent positive surprises.

Directional bias: Bullish tendency given perfect beat record, but recent put activity suggests caution.

Key Levels

1$350.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $425.10/$456.55; 1w $412.83/$468.83
3Max pain pins: $442 (2026-06-26); $440 (2026-07-02); $440 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Large put purchase Aug21 $440 (2692 vol, 4.5x OI ratio) and Jul31 $390 put (369 vol, 3.5x OI).

Hedging or bearish bets on post-earnings downside, targeting key support levels.

Call buying Jul2 $445 (1284 vol, 3.8x OI) and Jul10 $510 (296 vol, 2.9x OI).

Bullish upside positioning for near-term bounces, possibly bullish earnings expectation.

Strategies

Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $460.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $465.00 call
Debit: $0.83-$1.02
Max loss: $1.02
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if underlying breaches $403.98 invalidation; manage at earnings.
Lone eligible candidate exploiting steep IV term structure and 100% beat rate.
Outperforms: Short front-week call vs long back-week call to capture IV crush post-earnings.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss: despite 100% beat rate, elevated expectations could disappoint.
!IV crush: post-event volatility contraction could hurt long premium positions.
!Market tail risk: VIX 18.6, tech selloff (QQQ -0.42%), overall risk-off could spill over.

What to Watch

?TSM price action relative to max pain ($440) and EM guardrails ($425-$456).
?IV term structure flattening or steepening as event approaches.
?Unusual options activity continuation, especially put OI accumulation at $350-$400.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.