thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTSMReports

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $425.83EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.50
3.2% from close
Price Gap
-45.83
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
93
High premium
P/C OI
1.43
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
TSM Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High confidence: 100% beat rate, bullish flow, GEX pinning. 29 days out, moderate IV.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 13.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Historical beats and call flow align; watch gamma flip at $400.
📈TSM 100% beat rate last 5 quarters; flow bullish.
⚠️Deep OTM put activity signals tail-risk hedging.
🔍IV term structure front-loaded; monitor pre-earnings build-up.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,194 (7.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (29 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$9.90 (2.3%)
  • 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$26.30 (6.1%)
  • 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$16.12 (3.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-loaded: 1d ±2.3%, 9d ±6.1%, 15d ±3.7% (irregular, earnings skew).

Crush estimate: Moderate post-earnings crush, IV likely drops 30-40%.

Skew: Put skew elevated; hedging demand pre-earnings.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 5/5 beats, avg move +4.2% vs implied ±6%.

Directional bias: Bullish; 100% beat rate and positive drift.

Key Levels

1$400.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $422.25/$442.05; 1w $405.85/$458.45
3Max pain pins: $382 (2026-06-18); $425 (2026-06-26); $415 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Large call blocks at $440 and $560 strikes (7/2 and 7/17 expirations).

Bullish positioning for earnings; call walls may cap upside.

Strategies

Bullish Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $430.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $420.00 call
Debit: $9.20-$11.25
Max loss: $11.25
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if TSM drops below $416; consider rolling if IV spikes.
Capitalizes on 100% beat rate and positive flow more aggressively than calendar.
Outperforms: Buy back-month $420 call, sell front-month $430 call; profits from directional move and vol crush.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Neutral-to-Bullish Calendar
Sell 2026-07-10 $430.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $430.00 call
Debit: $4.07-$4.98
Max loss: $4.98
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Manage near $416 invalidation; close before earnings if IV drops.
Lower risk, benefits from IV crush and time decay; suits moderate bullish outlook.
Outperforms: Buy back-month $430 call, sell front-month $430 call; profits from vol contraction and theta.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma pinning near $425 but large OI beyond; VIX 18 adds tail risk.
!Deep OTM puts ($300) suggest hedging, not directional bearishness.

What to Watch

?Earnings date 7/16; QQQ and VIX direction; gamma flip at $400.
?Unusual activity in weekly expirations for short-term moves.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.