thetaOwl

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $434.99EOD only
Max Pain
$442.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.62
2.2% from close
Price Gap
+7.51
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
17
Low premium
P/C OI
1.37
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
TSM Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBearish
Confirmation: Break below gamma flip 350 or continued put accumulation
Invalidation: Sustained move above max pain or call volume surge
Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Watch next session: 350 gamma flip; max pain level

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$103.5M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 1.96

P/C OI ratio: 1.38

Heavy put buying dominates with 1.96 P/C vol ratio and unusual prints like $382.5 put (14.7x OI). Negative GEX (-$26.1M) and spot below MP indicate bearish hedging. However, upside call activity in $660 and $435 strikes suggests mixed positioning. Bearish bias with key level at 350.

Notable Prints

#1
TSM 2026-06-26 $382.50 Put
Vol: 2,471
OI: 168
Vol/OI: 14.7x
IV: 105.7%
Notional: ~$2K
Intent: Closing long put positions for pennies
Dual read: Could be opening lottery bet

Read-through: Bears exiting

#2
TSM 2027-01-15 $660.00 Call
Vol: 3,082
OI: 285
Vol/OI: 10.8x
IV: 55.6%
Notional: ~$5.4M
Intent: Bullish long-term speculation on TSM
Dual read: May hedge short stock position

Read-through: Optimistic on future growth

#3
TSM 2026-07-02 $295.00 Put
Vol: 1,383
OI: 202
Vol/OI: 6.8x
IV: 114.6%
Notional: ~$21K
Intent: Tail-risk hedge against crash
Dual read: Cheap lotto for downside

Read-through: Bearish despite positive sentiment

#4
TSM 2026-07-02 $437.50 Call
Vol: 785
OI: 141
Vol/OI: 5.6x
IV: 45.5%
Notional: ~$654K
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

#5
TSM 2026-06-26 $435.00 Call
Vol: 1,447
OI: 285
Vol/OI: 5.1x
IV: 15.4%
Notional: ~$48K
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Calls added at 435, 437.5, 447.5, 432.5; also far OTM $660C

Put additions: Puts added at 382.5, 295, 402.5 (deep OTM)

GEX/DEX consistency: GEX negative, DEX positive; consistent with long stock hedged with puts

OI clusters: Largest OI at 435C, 437.5C, 382.5P, 660C

Hedging evidence: Far OTM puts and high put/call ratio suggest hedging or bearish bets

Max pain context: Spot below MP (~435); negative GEX could accelerate move away from MP

Signal vs Noise

~Consistent call buying at 435-437.5 across expiries is signal
~Deep OTM $382.5P vol spike likely noise (lottery)
~$660C far OTM call may be speculation or ceiling hedge

Key Conclusions

🛡️Put flow dominates but net premium positive; mixed sentiment
📉Negative gamma amplifies moves; spot below MP may pin
🎯Call accumulation at 435-437.5 suggests bullish drift target
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.