thetaOwl

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $440.83EOD only
Max Pain
$442.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$15.73
3.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
18
Low premium
P/C OI
1.37
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
TSM Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBearish
Confirmation: Sustained put buying and negative net premium continue.
Invalidation: Spot rallies above gamma flip ($350) with call volume surge.
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

Watch next session: Monitor put activity at $340 and $350 strikes.; Check for gamma flip recovery signs.

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$23.5M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 2.14

P/C OI ratio: 1.37

TSM options flow dominated by aggressive put buying, notably Jul 2 $420 and Jul 31 $350 puts. Net premium -$23.5M, put/call volume ratio 2.14. Regime bearish, high vol, below MP. GEX -$9.5M. Downside bias persists until flow shifts.

Notable Prints

#1
TSM 2026-07-31 $350.00 Put
Vol: 3,018
OI: 172
Vol/OI: 17.6x
IV: 55.1%
Notional: ~$1.0M
Intent: Bearish speculation

Read-through: Expects drop below 350 by July expiry.

#2
TSM 2026-07-02 $340.00 Put
Vol: 1,603
OI: 198
Vol/OI: 8.1x
IV: 84.4%
Notional: ~$71K
Intent: Panic put

Read-through: Short-term bearish w/ high IV.

#3
TSM 2026-07-02 $420.00 Put
Vol: 6,068
OI: 808
Vol/OI: 7.5x
IV: 47.3%
Notional: ~$3.5M
Intent: Large bearish

Read-through: Expects drop to 420 by July 2.

#4
TSM 2026-07-02 $442.50 Call
Vol: 818
OI: 123
Vol/OI: 6.7x
IV: 49.4%
Notional: ~$708K
Intent: Bullish call

Read-through: Small upside bet.

#5
TSM 2026-07-02 $462.50 Call
Vol: 629
OI: 131
Vol/OI: 4.8x
IV: 47.9%
Notional: ~$180K
Intent: Bullish call

Read-through: OTM call speculation.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minor call buying at 442.5 and 485; dominated by puts.

Put additions: Heavy put buying at 350, 340, 420, 412.5, 445, 440, 410 across expirations; bearish flow.

GEX/DEX consistency: Consistent: negative GEX (-9.5M) and positive DEX (+47.2M) reflect dealer short puts (positive delta, negative gamma).

OI clusters: Largest put OI concentration at $350 (21,825 OI), acting as key support; call OI scattered at higher strikes.

Hedging evidence: Downside puts suggest protective hedging; $350 gamma flip implies dealer hedging intensifies near that level.

Max pain context: Spot below MP; heavy put OI at $350 may pin price near that level.

Signal vs Noise

~Signal: heavy put buying, high put/call ratios, bearish flow, GEX negative. Noise: minor call activity, moderate VIX.

Key Conclusions

🐻Sustained put buying at $350-$420 July expiries signals institutional downside hedging.
📉Gamma flip at $350 spot (21.8K OI) indicates key support; breach may accelerate selloff.
🏦Dealers net short gamma and long delta, amplifying spot moves toward $350.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.