thetaOwl

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $467.67EOD only
Max Pain
$440.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$21.30
4.5% from close
Price Gap
-27.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
1.36
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
TSM Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBearish
Confirmation: Break below gamma flip ~350 or sustained put volume on 375 put
Invalidation: Spot reclaims above 440 with call volume increasing
Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

Watch next session: TSM 2026-07-02 $375.00 Put; TSM 2026-06-26 $442.50 Call

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$61.6M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 1.10

P/C OI ratio: 1.36

Mixed flow overall. Despite positive net premium and dealer delta, put/call ratios are elevated and GEX negative. A dominant unusual put print at $375 with extremely high volume signals bearish positioning. Spot trading below max pain. High VIX adds caution. Bears have the upper hand near term.

Notable Prints

#1
TSM 2026-07-02 $375.00 Put
Vol: 15,248
OI: 389
Vol/OI: 39.2x
IV: 59.5%
Notional: ~$2.0M
Intent: Bearish put open

Read-through: Anticipates drop to $375

#2
TSM 2026-06-26 $442.50 Call
Vol: 661
OI: 110
Vol/OI: 6.0x
IV: 54.3%
Notional: ~$453K
Intent: Bullish bet on bounce

Read-through: Expects short-term recovery

#3
TSM 2026-06-26 $417.50 Put
Vol: 503
OI: 137
Vol/OI: 3.7x
IV: 52.2%
Notional: ~$127K
Intent: Bearish put open

Read-through: Expects decline to $417.50

#4
TSM 2026-07-17 $600.00 Call
Vol: 5,168
OI: 1,433
Vol/OI: 3.6x
IV: 61.1%
Notional: ~$362K
Intent: Speculative upside lottery

Read-through: Long shot bullish bet

#5
TSM 2026-07-02 $500.00 Call
Vol: 7,108
OI: 2,512
Vol/OI: 2.8x
IV: 53.9%
Notional: ~$746K
Intent: Speculative call open

Read-through: Expects rally above $500

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Modest call buys at $500, $600, $570, and weekly $442.5/$422.5

Put additions: Heavy $375 put (15k vol), plus $427.5 and $365 puts

GEX/DEX consistency: GEX negative (-$2.2M) vs DEX positive (+46.5M) signals dealer hedging but mixed flow

OI clusters: $500 call (2.5k OI), $375 put (high vol, low OI) concentration

Hedging evidence: $375 put likely hedge for long equity; $427.5 put suggests collar

Max pain context: Spot below MP, pin action toward gamma flip at $350

Signal vs Noise

~Signal: $375 put vol/oi 39.2 signals aggressive downside hedge.
~Noise: moderate vol/oi ratios (2-3) are routine retail flow.

Key Conclusions

🛡️Large $375 put addition indicates institutional hedging amid broad tech weakness.
⚖️Net premium positive but put/call volume >1 shows cautious positioning; dealers short gamma.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.