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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $372.97EOD only
Max Pain
$370.00
Next expiry Jun 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.28
2.2% from close
Price Gap
-2.97
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
57
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.41
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT earnings Jul 29. 100% beat rate, but near-term IV elevated from weekly expiry. Spot near max pain $370.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Call wall $390-$525 caps upside; put support $345. 0DTE volume spike indicates speculation.
📊100% beat rate last 5 quarters.
📈Call OI wall at $390-$525.
⚠️0DTE call anomaly suggests speculative froth.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (30 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-01 (2d): ±$9.43 (2.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (3d): ±$11.30 (3.1%)
  • 2026-07-06 (7d): ±$13.68 (3.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 2d 2.6%, 3d 3.1%, 7d 3.7%. VIX 17.6.

Crush estimate: Earnings 30d away; near-term IV inflated by weekly expiry, not earnings crush.

Skew: Call skew elevated; put-call ratio low (0.40). Max pain pin at $370.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; 5/5 beat rate but move size unknown.

Directional bias: Bullish; 100% beat rate last 5 quarters.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $359.15/$378.00; 1w $354.90/$382.25
2Max pain pins: $370 (2026-06-29); $365 (2026-07-01); $370 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

0DTE call surge at $370-$382.5 strikes, premium near $0.01.

Lottery-style speculation; limited conviction but bullish lean.

Put volume elevated at $367.5 and $370 strikes.

Hedging near max pain; protective positioning.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $350.00/$345.00 put wing and $390.00/$392.50 call wing
Credit: $1.47-$1.79
Max loss: $3.21
Max gain: $1.79
BE: 348.21 / 391.79
Trigger: Close at 50% max profit or before earnings if IV expands.
Captures elevated near-term IV while limiting risk; range-bound expected due to max pain $370 and support/resistance levels.
Outperforms: Sell put wing $350/$345 and call wing $390/$392.50; profit from IV crush and time decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $345.00 put + sell $390.00 call
Credit: $7.40-$9.04
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $9.04
BE: 335.96 / 399.04
Trigger: Monitor for breach of short strikes; roll or close if trend develops.
Higher premium than iron condor with same directional view; but unlimited risk requires caution.
Outperforms: Sell $345 put and $390 call; benefits from IV contraction and range-bound price.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-24 $390.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $390.00 call
Debit: $8.03-$9.82
Max loss: $9.82
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if near-term implied volatility spikes above back month.
Exploits upward-sloping term structure; near-term IV inflated by weekly expiry vs back month.
Outperforms: Sell near-term $390 call, buy later-dated same strike; profits if near-term IV falls faster.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 30d away; near-term activity may distort signals.
!Historical beat streak may lead to complacency.
!Call wall $390+ could cap further upside.

What to Watch

?Spot vs max pain $370.
?IV term structure evolution as earnings nears.
?Open interest buildup at $370 and $390.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.