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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $480.35EOD only
Max Pain
$490.00
Next expiry Aug 19, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.05
1.7% from close
Price Gap
+9.65
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
27
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.51
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 17, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short Call Credit Spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks $370 support or VIX spikes above 22
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 47% vs VIX 18% — elevated
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Steep, with 0DTE call IV 81%

⚠️High call IV suggests upside demand, but rich premiums

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+77.1M)

OI concentrations: Max pain $370 for 6/29, $365 for 7/1, $370 for 7/2

Verdict: Support $345, resistance $370 and $390. Pin risk moderate near $370.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $395.00/$410.00 call spread
Sell $395/$410 call spread to collect elevated premium.
Credit: $2.99-$3.66
Max loss: $11.34
BE: $398.66
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $370 or VIX spikes above 22.
#2
Collar
Buy shares + buy 2026-07-31 $340.00 put / sell 2026-07-31 $395.00 call (collar)
Buy shares, buy $340 put, sell $395 call.
Credit: $2.99-$3.66
Max loss: $24.91
BE: $364.91
Mgmt: Roll if support $345 breaks.
#3
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $340.00 put + sell $400.00 call
Sell $340 put and $400 call.
Credit: $14.62-$17.88
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 322.12 / 417.88
Mgmt: Close if spot nears either strike.

Risk Alerts

!High short-dated call IV skew may inflate premiums, but gamma pinning at $370 reduces tail risk.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.