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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $417.42EOD only
Max Pain
$417.50
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.05
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+0.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
Earnings Move History — MSFT
Historical stock price reactions to earnings announcements

Event-driven behavior view with EPS surprise context and post-event move distribution.

Turn Earnings Behavior Into a Setup
Decision-ready earnings framing, invalidation context, and setup details

Use the earnings report when you want setup selection, confidence context, and invalidation levels in one place.

Avg Move

+91.0%

Beat Rate

100%

Avg Surprise

+8.0%

Events

7

Report Context
Supporting confidence and setup preview

Top Setup Preview

Bullish Diagonal Call: Sell 2026-05-29 $430.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $425.00 call

MSFT bullish positioning: max pain pinning $418, massive OTM call buying, 100% beat rate. Earnings 71d out limits near-t

Market close context: May 19, 2026

Earnings Storyline
Quick read on expected pricing, realized reaction, and directional behavior

Implied vs Realized Gap

-43.0%

Nearest implied move is 1.4% vs historical average realized move of 44.5%.

IV Crush Tendency (Proxy)

17%

Historical events finishing inside the nearest implied move.

Realized earnings moves often exceed what options are pricing.

Post-Earnings Directional Bias

Balanced

Up 3 / Down 3 (50% dominant)

Average signed move: -12.2%

Earnings Reaction Distribution
Normalized percentage move on each reported event

Stock Move % on Earnings

Excluded 1 outlier point with invalid percent units.

Earnings Event Log
Detailed results for each reported quarter
DateTimeEPS EstEPS ActSurpriseStock MoveBeat?
Jul 29, 2026$4.24
Apr 29, 2026$4.06-1.1%
Mar 31, 2026$4.06$4.27+5.22%+1.7%Yes
Dec 31, 2025$3.92$4.14+5.69%-79.0%Yes
Sep 30, 2025$3.66$4.13+12.73%+65.0%Yes
Jun 30, 2025$3.38$3.65+8.09%+30.0%Yes
Mar 31, 2025$3.22$3.46+7.40%-90.0%Yes
Next Step
Optional follow-through after reviewing historical evidence
Want the actionable earnings setup?View earnings report details
How to Read Earnings History
Use historical post-earnings behavior to frame the next event, not to assume the next quarter will repeat the last one.
What this page tells you

It shows how the stock has reacted to past earnings, including surprise history, average move size, and whether upside or downside reactions have tended to dominate.

How traders use it

Compare historical realized moves with the next implied move to judge whether options are pricing too much, too little, or roughly enough event risk.

What matters most

Recent quarters, current guidance, and current IV usually matter more than distant history, especially when the business or macro regime has changed.

Historical earnings behavior is best used to prepare for the next event before you choose a structure and size the risk.