thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSFTReports

MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $417.42EOD only
Max Pain
$417.50
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.05
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+0.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT bullish positioning: max pain pinning $418, massive OTM call buying, 100% beat rate. Earnings 71d out limits near-term catalysts.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Consolidation near $418 max pain; upside call wall $450+. Break above $420 key.
📈100% beat rate bullish; net call premium $134M.
⚠️Earnings far out; near-term IV not yet pricing event risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
At

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (71 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-20 (1d): ±$6.06 (1.5%)
  • 2026-05-22 (3d): ±$10.78 (2.6%)
  • 2026-05-26 (7d): ±$12.68 (3.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV 25-30%, earnings IV ~35-40% (est), upward sloping.

Crush estimate: Not applicable (earnings far out).

Skew: Put skew elevated at near-the-money; call wall at $450.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 100% beat rate suggests upward bias; avg move data not available.

Directional bias: Bullish bias from historical beats.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $411.37/$423.48; 1w $404.75/$430.10
2Max pain pins: $418 (2026-05-20); $412 (2026-05-22); $408 (2026-05-26)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call buying at $432.5 and $440 strikes, 35x and 18x vol/OI.

Speculative positioning for upside beyond max pain $418.

Elevated put volume at $427.5 and $430, but low OI.

Possible protective hedging at out-of-money strikes.

Strategies

Bullish Diagonal Call
Sell 2026-05-29 $430.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $425.00 call
Debit: $11.77-$14.38
Max loss: $14.38
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short call if challenged; close before earnings.
Matches bullish bias and upward term structure; uses time decay and gamma.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later-dated call for bullish exposure with reduced cost.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Neutral Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-12 $405.00/$395.00 put wing and $435.00/$450.00 call wing
Credit: $5.21-$6.37
Max loss: $8.63
Max gain: $6.37
BE: 398.63 / 441.37
Trigger: Adjust if breached; exit at 50% max profit or prior to earnings.
Captures premium from expected consolidation near max pain; defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call wings to profit from range-bound price action.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 71d away; long-dated options subject to time decay.
!Key resistance $417.5-$420; failure to break may lead to mean reversion.
!Call OI wall $450+ could cap extended rallies.

What to Watch

?Price action around $417.5-$420 for directional clue.
?Weekly max pain $418 acts as magnet.
?Unusual option activity continuation.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.