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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $407.77EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.10
1.3% from close
Price Gap
+2.23
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
32
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.49
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT earnings 77 days away; 100% beat rate. Near-term bullish flow dominates, but IV not pricing event yet. Confidence high.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Aggressive 0DTE call buying and 54M net premium signal strong bullish positioning, but earnings too distant for immediate impact.
📈67k vol on 405C vs 433 OI — flagrant call buying
💡Net premium +$54M, put/call vol 0.42 — bulls in control
⚠️Spot near $406, call wall $450+ caps upside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
At

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (77 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$7.38 (1.8%)
  • 2026-05-18 (5d): ±$9.53 (2.4%)
  • 2026-05-20 (7d): ±$12.68 (3.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated (2d ±1.8%), longer-term flat; earnings premium not yet built.

Crush estimate: Moderate crush post-earnings (~50% IV drop) if current vol persists.

Skew: Call skew elevated vs puts, reflecting upside demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Unknown; beat rate 100% (5/5) suggests upside bias but no magnitude data.

Directional bias: Bullish due to consistent beats.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $397.83/$412.58; 1w $395.68/$414.73
2Max pain pins: $408 (2026-05-13); $405 (2026-05-15); $410 (2026-05-18)

Flow Highlights

Large 0DTE call buying at $405 and $407.5 with vol/OI ratios 155x and 23x.

Aggressive bullish positioning for today's close; delta hedging supports spot.

Net premium +$54M, put/call vol ratio 0.42.

Strong call dominance; flow aligned with uptrend.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-05-15 $407.50/$410.00 call spread
Debit: $0.73-$0.89
Max loss: $0.89
Max gain: $1.61
BE: $408.39
Trigger: Exit at 50% profit or 7 DTE.
Aligns with bullish bias from 100% beat rate and near-term flow; limited risk.
Outperforms: Bullish debit spread on MSFT near-term momentum.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-05-15 $385.00 put + buy $407.50 call
Debit: $2.65-$3.24
Max loss: $3.24
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 381.76 / 410.74
Trigger: Adjust strikes as earnings approach.
Captures potential earnings drift with cheap premium; suitable for uncertainty.
Outperforms: Non-directional volatility play ahead of earnings.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Current bullish flow may reverse if spot loses $405.
!Earnings far; long-dated options have low gamma, spot could drift.

What to Watch

?Spot relative to $405 and $407.5 resistance; max pain $408 today.
?OI build in weekly expirations ahead of July earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.