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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $422.79EOD only
Max Pain
$392.50
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.14
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-30.29
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence pinning environment into 4/29 earnings; call-side OI wall and concentrated short-dated activity suggest market favors range/upper-half action.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: flow + GEX alignment and recent pinning; historical beat consistency
Most important: Call OI wall at $445-$625 with concentrated short-dated call flow near $420-$425 driving pinning pressure.
📌Pinning pressure: concentrated short-dated calls at 420–425 driving range bias
⚠️IV split: low near-term IV vs elevated 4/29 event IV — expect notable crush variability
📊History: 4/4 beats (100%) — reinforces asymmetric upside skew

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
At

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (9 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-22 (2d): ±$7.32 (1.8%)
  • 2026-04-24 (4d): ±$11.15 (2.7%)
  • 2026-04-27 (7d): ±$12.65 (3.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV depressed for expiries before 4/29, elevated for expiries spanning the 4/29 event (4/29 and next weekly ~5/3) indicating event premium concentrated in the 4/29 window.

Crush estimate: Moderate — expected IV compression ~6–10 pts from elevated event-dated IV levels post-release.

Skew: Light put skew; asymmetric call-heavy flow around 415–425 strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves modest vs. expected; market priced ~1.8–3.0% ahead of event.

Directional bias: Bullish/pinning — 4/4 beats historically supports upside tilt.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $410.75/$425.40; 1w $405.42/$430.72
2Max pain pins: $415 (2026-04-20); $400 (2026-04-22); $400 (2026-04-24)

Flow Highlights

Large short-dated call prints at $420–425 with high vol/oi ratios

Active call buying likely contributes to upside pinning pressure

Significant put prints at $415 and concentrated OI there

Support near $415; floor for near-term range

Strategies

Call diagonal (calendar capture)
Sell 2026-05-01 $442.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $445.00 call
Debit: $5.83-$7.12
Max loss: $7.12
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Trim or roll short leg if price >445 or IV collapses post-release; stop if price <415.
Exploits elevated 5/01 IV vs cheaper June to sell event premium while keeping upside via back-month call.
Outperforms: Sell 5/01 442.5 call, buy 6/18 445 call to collect calendar premium and limit front-week reprice risk; benefits if stock pins near upper-half.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron condor (defined-range income)
Sell 2026-05-01 $395.00/$380.00 put wing and $435.00/$452.50 call wing
Credit: $5.99-$7.32
Max loss: $10.18
Max gain: $7.32
BE: 387.68 / 442.32
Trigger: Widen or hedge if pin breaches 435–452.5; cut if underlying trades past wings with momentum.
Uses defined wings to monetize heavy call OI and short-dated call flow while capping upside tail.
Outperforms: Sell 5/01 435/452.5 call wing and 395/380 put wing to collect premium in expected range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle (pure premium sell)
Sell 2026-05-01 $395.00 put + sell $440.00 call
Credit: $10.08-$12.32
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $12.32
BE: 382.68 / 452.32
Trigger: Buy protection or close short call if price rallies toward 440; manage size tightly.
Maximizes premium but carries unlimited upside risk if pin fails.
Outperforms: Sell 5/01 395 put and 440 call to collect event premium in tight pre-earnings environment.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Event IV crush can still produce sharp option repricing
!Pinning can fail if earnings miss or guidance disappoints
!Market-level weakness (SPY/QQQ down) could amplify downside

What to Watch

?Price action around $415/$425 guardrails
?IV moves in 4/29 and 5/3 expiries pre- and post-release
?Unusual flow persistence in 420–425 call strikes
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.