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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $421.06EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.28
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-6.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Strong bullish bias with high confidence (9.0) due to consistent beats, positive flow, and pinning at $420. Earnings 70 days out; near-term driven by weekly expiration.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Massive call activity at $420 max pain suggests tight pinning; watch for break above $429.33.
📈100% beat rate over 5 quarters: strong momentum.
⚠️Massive $420C volume (136k): pinning likely at max pain.
🐻Put/call vol ratio 0.28: extreme call dominance.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
At

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (70 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (2d): ±$8.28 (2.0%)
  • 2026-05-26 (6d): ±$11.05 (2.6%)
  • 2026-05-27 (7d): ±$12.62 (3.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to high call OI; contango into 70d earnings.

Crush estimate: Earnings IV crush ~70% from ~35% to ~10% post-Jul29.

Skew: Put skew suppressed; calls dominate with low put demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move +1.5% vs ±2.5% expected over last 5 quarters.

Directional bias: Bullish; 100% beat rate.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $412.78/$429.33; 1w $410.01/$432.11
2Max pain pins: $420 (2026-05-20); $415 (2026-05-22); $410 (2026-05-26)

Flow Highlights

Massive unusual call volume on 5/20 expiry at $412.5-$420 strikes.

Aggressive bullish positioning or gamma hedging near max pain.

High put volume at $417.5P with minimal premium.

Closing of bearish positions.

Strategies

Bullish Time Spread
Sell 2026-05-29 $440.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $445.00 call
Debit: $7.99-$9.76
Max loss: $9.76
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if stock breaks below $420 invalidation. Roll or close near earnings.
Best directional + volatility play: short front-month elevated IV, long back-month to capture earnings move.
Outperforms: Sells near-term call (high OI, contango) and buys later call for bullish earnings exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Range-Bound Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $400.00/$397.50 put wing and $440.00/$445.00 call wing
Credit: $0.78-$0.96
Max loss: $4.04
Max gain: $0.96
BE: 399.04 / 440.96
Trigger: Monitor pin action; close if breakout beyond 400-445.
Low-risk play given high call OI and low put OI; likely pin at $420.
Outperforms: Sell $400/$397.5 put spread and $440/$445 call spread, capturing time decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-29 $400.00 put + sell $445.00 call
Credit: $2.35-$2.88
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.88
BE: 397.12 / 447.88
High call OI, low put OI; likely pin at $420.
Outperforms: Collect premium from elevated vol ahead of MSFT earnings; high call OI at $440 suggests resistance.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Large call OI wall $450-$625 may cap upside.
!Low put OI offers limited downside protection.
!VIX 17 moderate but could spike on macro.

What to Watch

?$420 max pain and $429.33 guardrail for short-term direction.
?Call wall $450-$625 for resistance.
?Price action around $410 support and $441 resistance.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.