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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $405.21EOD only
Max Pain
$405.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.38
1.8% from close
Price Gap
-0.21
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
43
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.48
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT far from earnings; bullish flow and 100% beat rate support upside bias, but limited near-term catalyst.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: 76 days to earnings; call-heavy flow with $58k vol at 415c 0DTE; put/call vol ratio 0.35.
📊P/C vol ratio 0.35 (low), calls 2.9x puts.
⚠️0DTE 415c massive vol suggests aggressive gamma play.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (76 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (1d): ±$5.53 (1.3%)
  • 2026-05-18 (4d): ±$8.32 (2.0%)
  • 2026-05-20 (6d): ±$11.70 (2.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango, low near-term vols (~23% for weekly), higher for earnings.

Crush estimate: Minimal near-term crush; no event within 30 days.

Skew: OTM puts priced richer than calls, but call buying dominant.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; 5/5 beat rate suggests smaller or favorable moves.

Directional bias: Bullish given 100% beat rate and positive flow.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $403.90/$414.95; 1w $397.73/$421.13
2Max pain pins: $405 (2026-05-15); $410 (2026-05-18); $405 (2026-05-20)

Flow Highlights

Massive call buying in 0DTE (May 15) $415 strike: 58k vol vs 8k OI.

Aggressive bullish bet on expiration-day gamma, likely hedging or speculative.

Put/call volume ratio 0.35, net premium +$3.6M.

Calls dominate flow, supporting bullish sentiment.

Strategies

Bullish Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-22 $420.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $420.00 call
Debit: $6.55-$8.00
Max loss: $8.00
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if stock breaks below $405 or above $450, or at half max gain.
Expresses bullish bias and contango; 100% beat rate supports upside despite 76 days out.
Outperforms: Sells near-term vol in contango, buys later vol; aims to profit if MSFT gradually rises.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Neutral Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-22 $392.50/$387.50 put wing and $430.00/$435.00 call wing
Credit: $1.01-$1.23
Max loss: $3.77
Max gain: $1.23
BE: 391.27 / 431.23
Trigger: Take profit at 50% max gain or near expiry; widen wings if vol spikes.
Harvests time decay in low vol, but call wall at $450-$575 caps upside; suitable for range-bound view.
Outperforms: Sells wings near max pain, profits from low realized vol and time decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!No near-term earnings; macro volatility remains key risk.
!Call wall at $450-$575 may cap upside in case of rally.

What to Watch

?Next earnings July 29; implied move expected ~1.3% per week.
?Max pain pinning at $405-$410 for weekly expirations.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.