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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $420.26EOD only
Max Pain
$385.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.55
1.3% from close
Price Gap
-35.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Moderately bullish framing: flows and gamma suggest pinning near $390–$425 into 2026-04-29, but this is based on a small sample (4 past beats) so confidence is tempered.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 8.4% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Bullish flow + concentrated gamma near $390–$425 may bias price above mid-point, but small historical sample limits conviction
📌Flows/gamma concentrated 420–430 with call wall 445+ — supports near-term pinning potential
⚠️Only 4 historical beats — past pattern may not persist; treat confidence as limited

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (12 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-20 (3d): ±$2.14 (0.5%)
  • 2026-04-22 (5d): ±$4.22 (1.0%)
  • 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$13.12 (3.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV currently low-to-mid (6–27%) with higher mid-term IV into May/Jul; steepness implies more pricing in farther expiries.

Crush estimate: Expected IV contraction post-release, but magnitude limited by already-low front-week IV — likely fall toward the lower end of current front-week range (single-digit to mid-teens depending on strike/expiry), mid-term IV may retract ~10–20%. Method: relative % drop from pre-event front-week levels.

Skew: Skew shows call-side concentration above spot and put flow near 420–430; overall flattening but asymmetric call pressure persists

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Small sample (4 events): realized moves often in line with or smaller than expectations historically.

Directional bias: Tilt to upside in past instances, but four observations limit statistical confidence.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $420.65/$424.93; 1w $418.57/$427.02
2Max pain pins: $390 (2026-04-17); $392 (2026-04-20); $380 (2026-04-22)

Flow Highlights

Large call OI wall $445–$625

Provides sell-side liquidity above spot and can cap upside momentum

Concentrated short-dated flow and gamma 420–430 (4/17–4/20)

Creates pinning pressure into earnings and localized sensitivity around those strikes

Strategies

Shorter-dated call diagonal (cheap asymmetric)
Sell 2026-05-08 $430.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $435.00 call
Debit: $1.44-$1.76
Max loss: $1.76
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if underlying drops toward $393 or rapid IV moves occur.
Low-cost diagonal to sell nearer-term upside while holding longer dated call for directional upside with minimal net vega.
Outperforms: Sell May8 $430 call, buy May29 $435 call.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-01 $395.00 put + sell $430.00 call
Credit: $14.67-$17.93
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $17.93
BE: 377.07 / 447.93
Bullish pinning near 390–425 with limited realized moves and front IV compression expected; sell both wings to harvest premium while expiries sit after 4/29.
Outperforms: Collect front-mid premium selling balanced upside and downside risk around gamma/pinning zone into earnings, holding through IV contraction.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-01 $430.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $420.00 call
Debit: $8.55-$10.45
Max loss: $10.45
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Term-structure: front IV low-to-mid but mid-term richer; concentrated gamma near 390–425 suggests limited immediate breakout—sell May1, buy May29 same strike.
Outperforms: Sell nearer-dated call premium (post-earnings richness) and own back-month call to net sell front vol while retaining upside optionality.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Small historical sample (n=4) reduces statistical reliability
!Event surprise can still spike IV and overwhelm pinning
!Significant gap moves would alter gamma/flow dynamics quickly

What to Watch

?Unusual prints and volume in 4/17–4/20 expiries at 420–430
?Front-week IV moves vs mid-term term-structure
?Price reaction around $420–$425 and $390 levels

Read the Earnings analysis for MSFT for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.