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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $418.57EOD only
Max Pain
$412.50
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.90
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-6.07
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT earnings 64d out. Bullish flow pinning $415. 100% beat rate.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Call OI wall $450-$575 and $415 max pain.
📊100% beat rate (5/5)
🚨0DTE call surge at $415

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
At

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (64 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-27 (1d): ±$4.64 (1.1%)
  • 2026-05-29 (3d): ±$9.30 (2.2%)
  • 2026-06-01 (6d): ±$11.12 (2.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-term IV ~15%, contango.

Crush estimate: N/A (no near event).

Skew: Put skew slight at $415.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 1.5% vs 2.2% (modest).

Directional bias: Bullish (100% beat).

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $411.39/$420.66; 1w $404.90/$427.15
2Max pain pins: $415 (2026-05-26); $415 (2026-05-27); $415 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

0DTE $415 call vol 86x OI.

Short-term bullish pin.

Strategies

Range-Bound Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $400.00/$395.00 put wing and $430.00/$440.00 call wing
Credit: $3.35-$4.10
Max loss: $5.90
Max gain: $4.10
BE: 395.90 / 434.10
Trigger: Adjust if $415 breaks; close at 50% profit.
Captures time decay with high OI pinning at $415; no event risk; contango.
Outperforms: Sells a call spread and put spread around $415, profiting if MSFT stays near $415 by expiry.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Bullish Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-05 $420.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $420.00 call
Debit: $3.78-$4.62
Max loss: $4.62
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Needs monitoring; roll if stock moves above $425.
Leverages contango and bullish bias; OI at $420 supports premium collection.
Outperforms: Sells a near $420 call and buys a later $420 call, profiting if stock stays near $420 at near expiry.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Defensive Put Calendar
Sell 2026-06-05 $410.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $410.00 put
Debit: $3.10-$3.79
Max loss: $3.79
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if stock drops below $405.
Least aligned with bullish flow; suitable as hedge but lower upside.
Outperforms: Sells a near $410 put and buys a later $410 put, profiting if stock stays near $410.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Heavy call OI at $415 may force pinning.
!Low catalyst until July earnings.

What to Watch

?$415 pin and $420 breakout.
?Put/call OI ratio shift.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.