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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $365.46EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.38
2.6% from close
Price Gap
+14.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
44
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.41
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT earnings 7/29; IV rising with event premium. Heavy call buying near term, but net premium negative. Spot below max pain.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 6.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Unusual call volume in near-term $360 and $365 strikes suggests bullish positioning, but net premium is negative.
🚀Massive $360 call volume suggests upside bets
⚠️Net premium negative indicates hedging/flow imbalance

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (34 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$6.82 (1.9%)
  • 2026-06-29 (4d): ±$9.88 (2.8%)
  • 2026-07-01 (6d): ±$13.78 (3.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Increasing; 1d ±1.9%, 4d ±2.8%, 6d ±3.9%

Crush estimate: Estimated 30-40% post-event crush

Skew: Slight put skew with $345 put volume notable

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Actual moves vs implied not provided; historical beat rate 100%

Directional bias: Bullish bias from 100% beat rate

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $346.00/$359.65; 1w $339.05/$366.60
2Max pain pins: $378 (2026-06-26); $380 (2026-06-29); $372 (2026-07-01)

Flow Highlights

Massive $360 call volume 37,750 vs OI 145 (vol/OI 260x)

Aggressive call buying for near-term upside

$345 put volume 15,874 vs OI 1,278 (vol/OI 12.4x)

Hedging or bearish positioning at lower strike

Strategies

Bullish Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $375.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $365.00 call
Debit: $10.42-$12.73
Max loss: $12.73
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Manage at max pain zone; exit if spot breaks below $332
Aligns with near-term call buying, captures upside with positive theta
Outperforms: Buy Aug $365C, sell Jul $375C; benefits from IV crush and upside
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-24 $370.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $370.00 call
Debit: $7.22-$8.83
Max loss: $8.83
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit before ex-date if IV collapses
Pure time decay play on elevated IV, bullish bias
Outperforms: Buy Aug $370C, sell Jul $370C; profits from IV contraction and time decay
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot 6.5% below max pain at $380
!VIX at 18.9 suggests elevated volatility
!Net premium -$517M shows mixed sentiment

What to Watch

?Max pain levels: $378-$380
?Call OI wall $450-$525
?EM guardrails: 2d $346/$360, 1w $339/$367
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.