thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSFTReports

MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $390.74EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.91
1.8% from close
Price Gap
+9.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
85
High premium
P/C OI
0.43
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT 47d from earnings. Bullish flow but pinning near MP. 100% beat rate supports upside bias.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Heavy call buying ahead of weekly, but IV elevated short-term; pinning at $398.
🟢Heavy call volume at $385 (52.8x OI) shows bullish tilt
📌Max pain pinning at $398 for weekly; price near $394
📊100% beat rate historically (5/5 quarters)

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (47 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-15 (3d): ±$6.91 (1.8%)
  • 2026-06-17 (5d): ±$11.40 (2.9%)
  • 2026-06-18 (6d): ±$12.88 (3.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-term IV elevated (30-45%), longer-term contango. Earnings 47d out, IV not priced in.

Crush estimate: Minimal crush expected near-term; weekly expiration may see IV decline.

Skew: Call skew elevated, put skew low.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A (data not provided)

Directional bias: Bullish (100% beat rate)

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $383.83/$397.65; 1w $379.34/$402.14
2Max pain pins: $398 (2026-06-12); $400 (2026-06-15); $402 (2026-06-17)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call buying at $385, $382.5, $390 strikes; vol/OI >10x. Put at $387.5 near zero.

Bullish positioning but pinning near $398 max pain; net premium negative suggests hedging.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $370.00/$360.00 put wing and $395.00/$405.00 call wing
Credit: $4.91-$6.01
Max loss: $3.99
Max gain: $6.01
BE: 363.99 / 401.01
Trigger: Close at 50% profit or before weekly expiration.
Captures elevated IV while pinning near MP; defined risk.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put/call wings to profit from range-bound movement and time decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Bull Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-26 $397.50 call / buy 2026-07-17 $395.00 call
Debit: $6.19-$7.56
Max loss: $7.56
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short leg if threatened; exit below invalidation.
Exploits contango and bullish bias; short-term IV decay funds long theta.
Outperforms: Sells near-term call against later-dated call for net credit.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $370.00 put + buy $435.00 call
Debit: $22.70-$27.75
Max loss: $27.75
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 342.25 / 462.75
Trigger: Exit before earnings or on large move.
Cheaper than straddle; positions for breakout from pinning with elevated IV.
Outperforms: Buys OTM put and call to profit from large earnings move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $400.00 put + buy $400.00 call
Debit: $45.32-$55.39
Max loss: $55.39
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 344.61 / 455.39
Earnings catalyst 47d out; IV not fully priced; bullish flow supports large move; straddle captures direction.
Outperforms: Buy volatility ahead of MSFT earnings; 100% beat rate, IV elevated at 70 DTE.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk in case of sharp move away from MP
!IV contraction risk on weekly expiration

What to Watch

?MSFT price relative to $398 MP and $397.5 resistance
?Unusual activity at $385 strike for directional confirmation
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.