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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $352.83EOD only
Max Pain
$377.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.83
1.9% from close
Price Gap
+24.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
60
High premium
P/C OI
0.42
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT earnings 33 days out; IV elevated with term structure upward sloping. 100% beat rate and strong bullish flow provide tailwind. Gamma pinning near $370 supports near-term spot.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual call buying at $385 Jul 1 and $372.5 Jun 26 indicates directional upside bets, reinforced by 100% historical beat rate.
🚀Unusual call buying at $385 Jul 1 (vol/oi 42.7) signals directional upside bets
⚠️Gamma pinning near $370 with 0dte activity; spot could stall

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (33 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-29 (3d): ±$8.28 (2.2%)
  • 2026-07-01 (5d): ±$14.10 (3.8%)
  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$15.30 (4.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: Jun 26 ±3.5%, Jul 17 ±4.2% (earnings-aligned expirations)

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings IV crush, likely 50-60%

Skew: Call skew elevated vs puts; bullish bias

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 100% beat rate with consistent upside moves

Directional bias: Bullish

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $364.70/$381.25; 1w $358.87/$387.07
2Max pain pins: $360 (2026-06-26); $370 (2026-06-29); $365 (2026-07-01)

Flow Highlights

MSFT 2026-07-01 $385 Call: vol/oi 42.7 (15k vs 353 OI)

Large new call buying betting on $385+ by Jul 1

MSFT 2026-06-26 $372.5 Call: vol/oi 30.2 (47k vs 1.5k OI)

Aggressive short-dated call accumulation near max pain

MSFT 2026-06-26 $365 Put: vol/oi 19.8 (44.6k vs 2.2k OI)

Protective put buying below spot; hedging downside

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $370.00/$390.00 call spread
Debit: $7.36-$8.99
Max loss: $8.99
Max gain: $11.01
BE: $378.99
Trigger: Exit below $360; take profit near $390.
Aligned with bullish flow, 100% beat rate, upward sloping term structure.
Outperforms: Buy $370/$390 Jul 31 call spread for defined upside risk.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-08-21 $370.00/$350.00 put wing and $390.00/$395.00 call wing
Credit: $8.64-$10.56
Max loss: $9.44
Max gain: $10.56
BE: 359.44 / 400.56
IV elevated, term structure upward sloping, 100% beat rate supports range, but macro headwinds limit upside.
Outperforms: Sell premium around expected move to capture post-earnings IV crush with defined risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-31 $390.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $395.00 call
Debit: $2.48-$3.03
Max loss: $3.03
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Unusual call buying at 385, bullish flow, upward sloping term structure.
Outperforms: Capture term structure premium and directional upside through call diagonal.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!VIX at 18 adds premium cost; macro headwinds (QQQ -1.38%)
!Max pain at $360-$370 could pin spot lower
!33 days to event: theta decay accelerates

What to Watch

?Spot relative to max pain $370 and guardrails $358.87-$387.07
?Sustained call volume in $385 Jul 1 and nearby strikes
?Broad market direction: SPY, QQQ, VIX trend
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.