thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSFTReports

MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $367.34EOD only
Max Pain
$382.50
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.88
2.1% from close
Price Gap
+15.16
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.41
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

100% historical beat rate, but macro headwinds (QQQ -3.3%, VIX 19.5) and 36-day distance to earnings limit direct impact. Near-term call flow bullish.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Beat rate perfect but macro risk elevated; call flow at $375-$380 suggests short-term confidence, not earnings.
✅100% beat rate over 5 quarters supports bullish case.
⚠️Broader market weakness (QQQ -3.3%) contradicts bullish flow.
📊Near-term call buying at $375-$380 shows short-term optimism, but earnings is 36 days away.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-24 (1d): ±$5.88 (1.6%)
  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$10.43 (2.8%)
  • 2026-06-29 (6d): ±$12.43 (3.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-month elevated from near-term events; earnings IV not yet priced.

Crush estimate: Typical 40-50% post-earnings IV crush.

Skew: Put skew slightly elevated but moderate.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 100% but move magnitude not provided.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish based on historical beat rate.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $368.07/$379.82; 1w $361.52/$386.37
2Max pain pins: $375 (2026-06-24); $382 (2026-06-26); $380 (2026-06-29)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume at $375 (26408) and $380 (31238) with high vol/OI ratios.

Aggressive bullish positioning, likely near-term rather than earnings.

Put activity at $372.5 (11451) indicates hedging near support.

Protective puts reflect caution despite call buying.

Strategies

Iron Condor for Range-Bound
Sell 2026-07-17 $360.00/$345.00 put wing and $395.00/$415.00 call wing
Credit: $5.63-$6.88
Max loss: $13.12
Max gain: $6.88
BE: 353.12 / 401.88
Trigger: Monitor for IV expansion; exit if $400 breached or 50% of max gain.
Front-month IV inflated by macro, not earnings. 100% beat rate but macro headwinds limit move. Selling range captures time decay with high probability.
Outperforms: Sells put and call wings within likely range, profiting if MSFT stays between $360 and $395.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long Strangle for Volatility
Buy 2026-07-31 $350.00 put + buy $395.00 call
Debit: $17.71-$21.64
Max loss: $21.64
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 328.36 / 416.64
Trigger: Set stop loss at 50% premium; adjust strikes if market shifts.
Uncertain macro and 36-day horizon make directional bet risky. Strangle captures any move, but premium cost high. Lower rank due to negative expected value from high IV.
Outperforms: Buys out-of-the-money put and call to profit from significant move in either direction.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Broad market weakness (QQQ -3.3%) may pressure MSFT.
!Elevated VIX (19.5) signals uncertainty.
!Call wall at $450-$525 caps long-term upside.

What to Watch

?Macro sentiment and tech sector performance.
?Pre-earnings guidance updates.
?Option OI shifts in earnings-week expiries.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.