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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $390.74EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.91
1.8% from close
Price Gap
+9.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
85
High premium
P/C OI
0.43
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 12, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

48 days to earnings; strong call flow and rally boost bullish bias, but spot below MP and long time til event keep confidence moderate.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Unusual call sweeps (395c, 390c, 392.5c) with vol/OI > 40 signal aggressive bullish positioning ahead of earnings, but event far out.
📞Call sweeps dominate flow; 390-395c vol/OI > 50 suggests unusual bullish conviction.
⚠️Spot below MP and 410 resistance; rally may stall without catalyst.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (48 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (1d): ±$6.92 (1.8%)
  • 2026-06-15 (4d): ±$10.25 (2.6%)
  • 2026-06-17 (6d): ±$14.03 (3.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango: 1d 1.8%, 4d 2.6%, 6d 3.6% expected move; IV declining into event.

Crush estimate: Too far out; no crush estimate applicable.

Skew: Low put/call ratios (vol 0.67, OI 0.45); call OI wall at 420-575; skew favors calls.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided; beat rate 100% last 5 quarters suggests consistent upside surprise.

Directional bias: Bullish bias from historical beats and recent strong call flow.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $383.41/$397.26; 1w $376.31/$404.36
2Max pain pins: $410 (2026-06-12); $408 (2026-06-15); $415 (2026-06-17)

Flow Highlights

Massive call buying in 6/12 expiration: 20500x 395c, 25718x 390c, 12936x 392.5c.

Aggressive short-dated bullish bets despite distant earnings; possibly hedging or momentum play.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $390.00/$410.00 call spread
Debit: $7.47-$9.13
Max loss: $9.13
Max gain: $10.87
BE: $399.13
Trigger: Exit if MSFT below $369; roll up if rally continues
Captures upside with defined risk; bullish bias
Outperforms: Buy $390 call, sell $410 call; cost ~$8.13, max gain $10.87
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-26 $380.00 put + sell $415.00 call
Credit: $7.88-$9.62
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $9.62
BE: 370.38 / 424.62
Trigger: Close if spot at $383 or $415; adjust on IV spike
Theta decay in contango; range-bound
Outperforms: Sell $380 put and $415 call; 15 DTE
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long Call
Buy 2026-08-21 $415.00 call
Debit: $15.12-$18.48
Max loss: $18.48
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $433.48
Trigger: Sell if spot below $369; roll down on pullback
Call sweeps and beat rate support upside
Outperforms: Buy Aug 21 $415 call; cost ~$16.80, unlimited upside
Underperforms: Failure at support and IV crush weaken long-call thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Long time to earnings (48 days) introduces theta decay and macro risk.
!Spot below max pain (410) and EM guardrails; failure to hold 397 could see put pressure.
!High call OI at 420-575 may act as resistance on rallies.

What to Watch

?Earnings date 7/29: any guidance or pre-announcements.
?Resistance at $410 and $420; support at $383-$397 EM guardrails.
?Continued call flow in near-dated expirations.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.