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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $379.40EOD only
Max Pain
$387.50
Next expiry Jun 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.81
1.8% from close
Price Gap
+8.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.42
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT earnings 41 days out, 100% beat rate. Heavy near-term call buying suggests bullish momentum, but spot below max pain. Net premium negative indicates hedging. Overall bullish tilt.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.9% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Heavy call buying at $377.5 with vol/oi 177.6; 100% historical beat rate.
📈Call buying at $377.5 with 177.6 vol/oi shows extreme bullish sentiment.
⚠️Net premium -$99.5M despite call buying suggests put selling or spreads.
📊100% beat rate over 5 quarters supports bullish bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (41 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-22 (4d): ±$6.81 (1.8%)
  • 2026-06-24 (6d): ±$10.88 (2.9%)
  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$13.20 (3.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to near-term catalysts; back-end flat with call wall at $450+.

Crush estimate: Low; earnings-specific IV not yet priced.

Skew: Call skew elevated; put skew flat.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not specified; 100% beat rate suggests frequent upside.

Directional bias: Bullish

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $368.52/$390.27
2Max pain pins: $395 (2026-06-18); $388 (2026-06-22); $385 (2026-06-24)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call buying at $377.5 (6/18) with vol/oi 177.6 and $380 (6/18) with vol/oi 24.4.

Aggressive bullish positioning near spot, likely pinning price.

Large put OI at $345 (7/24) with vol/oi 14.0 and IV 31.7.

Hedging or bearish bet on longer-term downside.

Strategies

Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-26 $367.50 put + sell $395.00 call
Credit: $3.75-$4.59
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $4.59
BE: 362.91 / 399.59
Trigger: Close at 50% of max gain or roll before expiration if spot approaches strikes.
Front-end IV elevated, 8 DTE captures premium without earnings risk; best risk/reward for near-term bias.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to profit from time decay and IV contraction.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-06-26 $367.50 put / buy 2026-07-24 $365.00 put
Debit: $4.41-$5.40
Max loss: $5.40
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close when near-term put decays; monitor the long put for roll.
Net credit, defined risk; utilizes front-end put IV spike while maintaining downside protection.
Outperforms: Sells near-term put and buys later put for bearish skew exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long call
Buy 2026-08-21 $390.00 call
Debit: $17.84-$21.81
Max loss: $21.81
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $411.81
100% beat rate, heavy call buying at 377.5, bullish bias
Outperforms: Buy 390 call for bullish earnings exposure
Underperforms: Failure at support and IV crush weaken long-call thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot below max pain ($395 for 6/18) could lead to pin action.
!Heavy call OI at $377.5 may act as resistance.
!Earnings far out; near-term catalysts dominate.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction at $377.5 call wall.
?Break above $380 resistance.
?Net premium direction.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.